Running For Roses: A Recap Of The 141st Kentucky Derby
Imagine someone gave you $25,000 to bet on one horse to win in a race. If you picked the winner, you keep the cash. If you picked wrong, you get nothing except the experience of watching your possible winnings slip away in less than two minutes. In reality, losing the bet means little. You would not have lost any of your own money and life would go on the same as before. If you just looked at it as a lottery ticket, you could maintain your sanity. But that is damn near impossible. When the outcome of a race makes a five figure difference in your wallet, how can you stay sane? How do you decide who to bet on? I don’t know the answer to these questions ,but I should gain some insight in the next two weeks because, improbably, a buddy of mine will have that opportunity.
With the 141st Kentucky Derby in the books and the Triple Crown series under way, sports betting outfits of all kinds are offering various promotions, contests and giveaways. My good friend Jack has been fortunate enough to win one such promotion. He has won a trip to the Preakness with airfare, food and hotel accommodations as well as tickets to the races at Pimlico. Once he is there he will be given a credit for $25,000 in his wagering account which he can bet to win on one horse the Preakness. Winning the weekend trip is pretty sweet, and no one would turn down the offer of a huge bet on the house, but the dynamic of the pending wager puts a crazy twist on the trip that makes it incredibly unique. How the hell will this trip go down? I have no idea ,but I can’t wait to find out.
When looking for a Preakness winner, the best place to start is the Kentucky Derby. Looking back a recent history, there are only a few Preakness winners that did not run in the Kentucky Derby. One was Rachel Alexandra, who romped in the Kentucky Oaks, a prestigious race run the day before the derby but restricted to fillies. The others have generally been well regarded horses who missed the derby due to minor injuries or training setbacks but made it to Pimlico in good form. As of right now, the first three finishers of the Kentucky Derby are likely to run in the Preakness and none of the new shooters look to be too big a threat. However, nothing is official yet and these things can be fluid so I will save the deeper Preakness analysis for next week. For now, a good recap of the derby is the best preview for the next leg of the Triple Crown.
Last week I wrote about the derby and even put my neck on the line with a few bets. I committed to $60 worth of bets, and I am glad that I my money where my mouth was. A few horses were late scratches so some bets became cheaper and the total wagering amount was $53 on race day. Among those bets, $3 was on the winning exacta for a return of about $109, not a life changing score but there’s nothing wrong with doubling your money. The bet of playing the favorite in exacta boxes with the field returned a winner for the fourth year in a row, but just barely, $34 paid out $36, but playing a few extra exactas with the favorite and other top choices got me to the exacta for a few more bucks and made the bet more profitable. Most years in the derby, you can make money by spreading out and catching some long shots, this year the best way to cash was to hammer the favorites. I adopted a philosophy that embraced both styles so I didn’t hit anything huge because there were no big upsets, but I did cash a few bets and turn a profit. I’ll take it.
Most years the payouts on derby exotic bets are obscene, but this year, with the favorite winning, the second choice finishing third and no big upset coming in second or fourth, the payouts were tame by derby standards. I had a dollar on the trifecta which paid about a hundred, not bad but still less than most previous year’s exactas. The superfecta paid out a little more than six hundred bucks, again, not bad but most years it pays out several thousands. Some friends of mine have put down an eight horse superfecta box on the derby for the past few years. The cost is $1,680 and the last few years they missed by a horse but the payouts were huge if they would have hit. This year they hit it, but still lost a grand. I guess this year was not the year to take long shots.
As with most years, when the gates sprang open, a wall of horses took off and chaos ensued. I still can’t sort out all the intricacies of the start, but after a half a minute Dortmund had established the lead with Firing Line sitting second and American Pharoah in third. I had all three horses played together in exactas and trifectas so my first thought was, how fast will they run the first half mile? For the uninitiated better, this may seem an odd question, but anyone familiar with horse racing is probably familiar with the term, pace makes the race. The faster a horse runs earlier in the race, the more likely it is to fade later in the race. The slower a horse runs earlier in the race, the more likely it is to finish strong. The first half mile in the derby is usually run between 45 and 48 seconds and when I saw the time for their half mile at a little over 47 seconds, I felt good. With a slower pace, the leaders should have a better chance at hanging on in the end. The top three were still in front when they hit the last turn and that’s when I started yelling, “No Closers!” repeatedly for the last 45 seconds of the race. In that time, Firing Line and American Pharoah passed Dortmund to fight it out down the stretch with American Pharoah pulling away in the end. My attention turned towards the fight for third and I’m pretty sure if I didn’t yell, “No Closers!” at the top of my lungs, Frosted would have passed Dortmund. Thankfully I did my job, Dortmund held on for third and I cashed a few more bets than I would have if Frosted took third. For anyone who had Dortmund in the trifecta, you’re welcome, for those backed Frosted, my apologies.
The top three finishers all had good trips and ran at a soft pace, so if you want to be a detractor, there is enough to doubt. But if you want to try to beat one of them in the Preakness, you will have to find a better horse and that might be tough. The only other horse running on in the derby was Frosted, but he looks to be aimed towards the Belmont Stakes and will not run in the Preakness. Often times the pace in the derby is much faster than the pace in the Preakness, so runners on the lead are more likely to hang on and finish in the money than they would be in Louisville. But this year’s derby saw the first three runners at the half mile pole all hang on to hit the board so it’s hard to envision the Preakness unfolding very differently. However, no two races are the same and I’ve seen plenty of horses run vastly different races against similar competition. The best argument against the top three Derby horses is simply the unpredictable nature of horse racing. We can guess as how happy or healthy a horse is but they can’t tell us if something is wrong or if they just aren’t feeling good that day. Sometimes a race takes a lot out of a horse and it needs time to recover. With a short two-week turnaround to the Preakness and another trip to a new location, we don’t know how they will handle the distractions but I’m excited to find out.
So what to do with that $25,000 bet? Right now Jack is leaning towards American Pharoah and I can’t blame him. Firing Line also looks to have a good shot and maybe the shorter distance and smaller field will help him turn the tables on American Pharoah. In the meantime, Jack will be reading everything he can about every horse in the race and how they are training, eating and traveling. Next week I’ll have some wagers for the Preakness and an update on Jack’s big bet. Hopefully the horses stay healthy, the race is run cleanly and my buddy picks the winner.
dortmund is a very nice horse but he had no excuses in the derby. He had a good run and the rail and he faded early. I know the distance is a little shorter, but if I was going to go against AP it would be firing line not Dortmund
dortmund was my derby pick , I believe he can win the preakness much like Shackleford beay ak, either wY gteat story im betting my 25 k at 8 to 1 dortmund. Good luck safe travels
Good call. We were talking about that yesterday. It all depends on who ends up running but right now if I were him I’d lean towards American Pharoah with the big bet and then put a few hundred on Firing Line and/or Dortmund. It all depends on the odds. I think Pharoah will be about even money but I’m not sure what the odds on the other horses will be. Exciting stuff!
Tim,
I was just talking with Mike Muto about this, he should seriously consider hedging his bet on the other favorite’s, sure it is a risk, and he could lose money, but most likely it will guarantee a win of some kind.
What a crazy prize to win!