I am often prone to over analysis.  After studying an issue ad nauseum, I often find I am no closer to a solution than when I began.  But I do not consider this to be a character flaw nor do I see my analysis as a futile endeavor.   Even though the answers are often hazier than before, a deeper understanding of the question can yield insights that are just as profound or useful.  Over the years, this realization has led me to embrace contradictions that might otherwise drive me mad.  The human experience is filled with such contradictions.  By many measures, human beings are quite an advanced species.  We have built bridges, skyscrapers, aqueducts and large civilizations.  We have improved our quality of life on earth, sent humans to the moon and started to understand the vast wonders of the universe.  But we are also still very primitive.  To see this, one needs to only look at our young nation this Saturday and observe some of the main events that will bring us together.

The two biggest sporting events in the US on Saturday will be a fight and a race, I will watch both and I will wager on both.  Beyond that, tens of thousands of people will gather in various locations to watch men try to throw a ball through a hoop or hit a ball with a stick.  We will treat some people better than others based solely on their ability to hit a ball or throw a ball or punch someone.  For some people, prize fighting may appear to be the shameful epitome of our basest desires.  There is no denying the seedy side of organizing fights for money.  It often involves better off people making money off of underprivileged individuals who are risking permanent health damage to entertain crowds and make a living.  I can understand the moral objection to prize fighting altogether, but I do not share that opinion.  For me, not all fights are the same.  Some are absolutely shameful.  But humans can be naturally violent and if two bad-ass dudes want to throw down, I want to watch.

Last November 15th, I watched two fights that exemplified my contrasting feelings.  The first was an MMA fight between Tito Ortiz and Stephan Bonnar and by the end of the match I felt dirty.  It seemed to me like the two washed up fighters could barely make it through the five minute rounds.  The fighting was lackluster and by the end they both just looked tired and ready to go home.  No one mounted any legitimate or sustained offensive attack.  It was obviously two guys who wanted to cash a paycheck, not two guys who wanted to kick some ass and it was awkward to see the fans encourage these worn down men to try to inflict pain on each other.  Later that night I watched Wladimir Klitschko beat up on Kubrat Pulev and it was exactly the kind of fight I want to watch.  Klitschko is a beast, he knows it, and he is excited to prove it.  His opponent got knocked out in the 5th round but he fought hard and made a good showing.  There was no doubt that Klitschko was the better fighter, but Pulev was a worthy opponent.  When fights are staged purely for money, it can be a soul-crushing affair that I want no part of.  When two people who like to fight and are good at fighting stage an organized bout to see who is the better fighter, I say let them brawl, and more importantly, let me watch.

This Saturday, Manny Pacquiao squares off against Floyd Mayweather in Las Vegas for the most anticipated fight in years.  It is set to rake in more money than any other fight ever and both fighters will walk away with ridiculous amounts of cash.  These guys are both studs, both are great fighters and in great condition and are both mentally sharp.  So by all accounts I should have no moral objection to enjoying the fight.  But Pretty Boy Floyd’s history of domestic abuse is not something I cannot easily ignore.  He has served his time and I am generally in favor of second chances, but this man has multiple convictions for abusing women.  When he is questioned about it, I have not heard him offer an apology or show any remorse.  I don’t like the fact that he is pulling in so much cash from this fight, and I am not happy with myself for contributing to his take, but I can’t wait for the fight.

I am not one to watch a lot of fights, but Mayweather and Pacquiao have been the biggest names in boxing for a while and I have seen most of their recent fights.  Manny has been a great fighter and fun to watch, but I have bet against him a few times.  Usually I regret it, but I did cash in when Marquez finally beat him with a knockout in the closing seconds of the sixth round.

The first time I bet on Mayweather was in 2007 when he beat Oscar De La Hoya in a split decision.  After that fight I decided I would never bet against Mayweather and I would lean towards betting him to win by decision.  Since then he has won nine fights, seven by decision.  When I first heard that this fight was going to happen, I had no doubt that if I bet, it would be on Mayweather to win by decision.  But the closer the fight gets, the more I want to see Manny knock Floyd out.  So if I bet, it will be small and with my heart, not my head.  I’ll probably throw ten bucks to win on Manny and hope he can spring the upset, that way I don’t have to root for a guy who hits women.

Before the fight goes down on Saturday night, twenty horses will try to be the fastest to run a mile and a quarter in the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby.  For most of the year, the average person is oblivious to the world of horse racing.  But starting on the first Saturday in May, the winner of the derby will merit national attention.  If he goes on to win the Preakness, there will be intense anticipation leading up to the Belmont Stakes with a Triple Crown on the line.  No one else in my family follows horse racing regularly or cares about bigger races like those in the Breeder’s Cup, but my mom usually watches the Kentucky Derby, and last year when California Chrome tried to complete the Triple Crown, My brother stopped off after his kids’ soccer games and found a place to watch the race.  The Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown manage to grab national attention like no other horse race can.

Horse racing can be pretty shady.  From stories of betting scams to animal abuse I understand why people would like it to become a thing of the past.  Some argue that the sport amounts to animal cruelty and should be abolished.  The actions of some unscrupulous owners and trainers are abhorrent and I cannot defend the way they treat their animals.  However, I don’t think the horses that will run on Saturday are suffering from abuse.  Most of these horses cost a pretty penny just to buy let alone to train and take care of.  Besides Far Right, which was purchased for $2,500, the next cheapest horse was bought for $51,000 and only one other horse was bought for less that six figures.  Rich people are investing large sums of money on these horses.  They want to win prestigious races and I doubt they think that treating their investment poorly is the best way to get results.  The cheap horses at the cheap tracks are the most vulnerable, more should be done to keep them healthy and happy.  Expensive horses are treated well, fed well and have to run races a few times a year when they are young.  Then they are put out to stud.  We should be so lucky.

So the question is, what to bet on the big race?  I like to bet everything, everywhere, all the time, but the derby offers so many bets that I have to narrow my focus.  A few days ago, I wrote that betting the favorite with every other horse in exacta boxes has been a winner for the last three years in a row.  I will make that bet this year, because it has a decent history and because the favorite looks tough to beat.  American Pharoah was made a 5-2 favorite on the morning line and will probably be bet down closer to 2-1.  His record is great, his trainer is a hall of famer, and he drew post position 18, stuck a bit outside but away from trouble and outside of his main rivals both in pace and talent.  His resume alone is enough to merit me wagering my hard earned money on him, but the superlatives being hurled at him by unconnected trainers and clockers seal the deal.  American Pharoah arrived at Churchill Downs recently and had one timed workout there after his romp in the Arkansas Derby.  He ran five eighths of a mile in 58.4 seconds with the jockey steady in the irons.  Thirtytwo other horses had timed workouts at the same distance on the same morning, none of them came close to that time and most were urged on to some degree by the rider.  After the work, private clocker Gary Young said, “I have been doing this for 35 years and he might be the best horse I’ve ever seen.”  He then went on to compare the horse to Michael Jordan.  If I just had the past performances to look at, I would probably be as impressed with the second choice on the morning line, Dortmund, but it is clear that in the eyes of people more experienced and in the know than myself, American Pharoah is the horse to beat and the horse to bet.

So I will start by betting a $1 exact box with American Pharoah and every other horse.  It will cost $38 if there are no late scratches.  I like the bet but I would also feel like an idiot if it hit and I didn’t have it since I’ve been talking it up.  I will then put a few extra bucks on exactas with American Pharoah and the horses I like the best.  Right now I am leaning towards Dortmund, Carpe Diem, Mubtaahij, Firing Line and International Star.  So I’ll do an extra $1 exacta with those horses on top of American Pharoah and a $2 exacta with those horses underneath.  That’s $15 more to bet, bringing me to a total of $53.  I might as well make is an even $60 so I’ll do a $0.50 trifecta box with American Pharoah, Dortmund and Mubtaahij for $3 total.  And then I will fire off a $1 superfecta with American Pharoah keyed on top over Dortmund and Mubtaahij in second and Dortmund, Mubtaahij and Firing Line in the third and fourth spots for $4 total.  If I have a few extra bucks I will then head to the dartboard to blindly throw darts and bet those numbers in superfectas.  With twenty horses and twenty numbers on the board it works well and it would be a great story if one of those bets hit.

If you are betting the race or the fight, good luck.  If you have an opinion about either that you are passionate about, I’d love to hear it in the comments.  And if you want to bet the race but don’t know where to go or how to do it, speak up in the comments and I’d be glad to help you find a way.  It can be intimidating to rookies but it’s not too hard to learn the lingo and putting a few bucks on the line can add to the excitement.  Horse racing is legal to bet online in many states and you can also bet from other tracks or off-track betting sites.  I will be heading to Los Alamitos race track in north Orange County with friends to place my bets and watch the race.  No matter what the result, I will get a rush from the race that is tough to beat.  After investing so much time analyzing an event that last about two minutes, my heart will want to jump out of my chest once those horses leave the gate, and if my horse is in the hunt as they turn for home, the adrenaline will make me shout as if my words alone will be the difference in the race.  I can’t wait!