The 143rd Kentucky Derby is in the books and for the fifth straight year the betting favorite crossed the wire first. Congratulations to Always Dreaming, his connections and anyone that put money on him.
Favorites are undefeated since the qualifying system for the derby changed and many believe that the system change is the main reason for this development. I tend to agree, but getting the favorite home first five consecutive times in races with 20 horse fields requires a fair amount of dumb luck as well. The more times a horse runs in a race as crowded as the Kentucky Derby, the more likely he is to find trouble. Even for a superior horse, avoiding bad luck for five straight races is pretty lucky in itself.
Horse racing analysts hate favorites and love to nitpick. Perhaps that is why so few of them have picked a derby winner recently. I always laugh when handicappers desperately find reasons why the favorite is weak, and then tout a horse that has been soundly beaten multiple times by said favorite. Making excuses for losers and discounting winners can be a good way to find future longshot runners that payout. But that exercise is often taken to the extreme and the result is public handicappers that never play the favorite, even when it has a superior resume and offers decent odds. That doesn’t seem smart to me.
While both Always Dreaming’s trainer and jockey had Kentucky Derby wins in the past, doubters liked to point out that Pletcher and Velasquez have never won it together. As if the horse would only respond to the jockey if someone else trained him. After 5 straight favorites have won, it seems like the experts are getting too cute. Maybe they should spend less time doubting the wisdom of the crowd. Then again, maybe this is the best time for them to stick to their guns, as the gravy train must end sometime.
The betting public doesn’t share the expert pickers’ aversion to the obvious choice. The best horse with the best resume is going to get the most money bet on him and will be the most likely winner. Makes sense to me. Bettors made Always Dreaming the Kentucky Derby favorite for good reason and he did not disappoint.
If you played my bets from the last article, you turned a profit. The $80 in wagers I posted on this site last week paid back $282. Not bad. Now, what do I take away from the race besides a cool $202 profit? Not a whole lot. Obviously Always Dreaming proved to be one of the best horses in the race, but a packed field running on a sloppy surface caused some horses to lose all chance from the start.
Credit must be given to Always Dreaming, whose tactical speed kept him out front and prevented him from getting mud kicked in his face. The other runners that were near the lead and free from kickback all failed to hold their speed. But for the horses that were roughed up out of the gate then swallowed by a wall of horses kicking mud in their eyes, the race was over just after it began. It’s not hard to imagine that some of the less fortunate derby runners will move up in a race with less runners and more ideal conditions. Classic Empire is the main derby horse going on to the Preakness that I think could pose a threat to Always Dreaming with better racing luck. He may have gotten the worst of the starting chaos and still ran on to finish fourth.
Looking at Lee, a surprise second in the Kentucky Derby after needing a late defection to make the field, will also look to turn the tables on Always Dreaming in the Preakness. Gunnevera and Hence, 7th and 11th respectively in the derby, are the only other Kentucky Derby horses likely to run in the second jewel of the Triple Crown.
I’d be much more confident in Always Dreaming’s chances to win the Preakness if he were trained by Bob Baffert. Baffert has brought quality horses back from short rests with a good amount of success. Todd Pletcher does it extremely rarely and has had little success. Although, to be fair, he may be a victim of a small sample size. But the fact that the sample size is so small for such a prolific trainor is likely a sign that such a move is outside of his comfort zone.
Todd Pletcher’s last derby winner, Super Saver, failed to hit the board in the Preakness. But in my opinion, Super Saver was not the best horse in the Kentucky Derby, he just got the best trip. Lookin at Lucky, father of this year’s second place finisher Looking at Lee, was the most accomplished horse heading into the derby that year. But he drew the 1 post. And with 19 runners to his outside all trying to get over and save ground, Lookin at Lucky was checked hard into the rail twice and lost all chance from the start. In the Preakness, he drew well, avoided trouble and turned the tables on Super Saver. Maybe Classic Empire can take a page from Lookin at Lucky and get the best of Always Dreaming with a better trip.
There are good reasons to doubt Always Dreaming in the Preakness, but there are good reasons to like his chances as well. Winning derby favorites have a strong record in the Preakness. Generally speaking, if you have the best horse in the derby, not much should change in 2 weeks and you should have the best horse in the Preakness.
Another reason to like Always Dreaming in the Preakness is the performance of his father, Bodemeister. Bodemeister was the favorite in the Kentucky Derby and managed to hang on for second after contesting one of the fastest opening half miles in derby history. In the Preakness, he again finished second behind I’ll Have Another, but his performance wasn’t bad, he just ran into a better horse. If Always Dreaming can run back in the Preakness the way his father did, he should be flashing his tail to the competition down the homestretch once again.
Five new shooters are expected to join the five derby runners headed for the Preakness. I’ll be back next week with my picks once the runners are official and post positions are drawn. It will be hard to go against Always Dreaming, but I’m not making any proclamations just yet. The best decisions come from an open mind that gathers as much information as possible. Anything can happen in the next week so I will do my best to stay informed while withholding judgement.
Absent any financial interests, I hope Always Dreaming wins the Preakness because then horse racing will stay in the public consciousness for 3 more weeks until the Belmont and people will care about what I have to say about the race. Without a Triple Crown on the line, the Belmont Stakes is irrelevant.
I’m all out of words for now. See you back here next week where I will try to build on my derby success. If history is any guide, the next race is where I will piss all my winnings back, but nothing is written, even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes and the sun shines on a dog’s ass some days. Hopefully I can be that squirrel or that dog’s ass.