We’ve finally whittled it down to two teams and just one win stands between them and the Lombardi trophy. With two weeks’ worth of build up for one last game, the public has time to obsess over the minutia, then get sick of hearing about it, then forget about the game, then remember it and get excited again. The process may even repeat a few times. I hope this reaches you during a renaissance of interest, but I apologize if you are worn down from over analysis and radio row interviews with former players making the rounds to hawk razor delivery services.

You can listen to someone who has watched every snap of every game that each team has played this season breakdown personnel formations on ESPN, or you can take your betting advice from a video game simulation, go by mascots or uniform colors or the random choice of an octopus. There’s plenty for everyone to sink their teeth into on this game, so I will start where I am most comfortable, with the Vegas odds.

The Patriots opened as 3 point favorites and have stayed at that number fairly consistently. Vegas expects a high scoring game. As I write this, the over/under is at 59, which would be the highest total ever for a Super Bowl if it holds. Both of these teams haven’t been challenged much this postseason. The Falcons beat the Seahawks by 16 and the Packers by 23. The Patriots beat the Texans by 18 and the Steelers by 19. If you are a fan of either team, those games were fun enough to watch and I’m sure you would take another blowout. The rest of us are just hoping for a competitive game, or at least an end of quarter score that matches one of our squares, or tails on the opening coin toss. Tails never fails, except about half the time.

The public money is on the Patriots, with a little over 60% of wagers made on New England. New England is now 16-2 since the start of the season and 15-3 against the spread. If you decided to ride the Patriots this year, you made some good money. A record that strong against the spread is pretty rare. As a team keeps winning money for its backers, the backers pile on and bet more which tends to move the line to unsustainable levels until the bottom finally drops out. It happened to the Vikings earlier in the season, it even happened to the Pats the year they came into the Super Bowl undefeated. Covering the spread tends to get harder as a team keeps winning, but the Pats have been the exception to that rule this season.

Atlanta is now 13-5 since the start of the season and 12-6 against the spread. Those numbers would look more impressive were they not put up against New England’s. Three of their five losses were by a field goal or less. While they haven’t been as consistent as the Patriots, they’ve been solid and their offense has been prolific. The Falcons have scored over 5 more points per game than the second highest scoring offense this season. The gap from 1st to 2nd in terms of scoring was as big as the gap from 2nd to 12th. When you look at some of the offensive numbers on the season, Atlanta is an outlier.

As good as Atlanta’s offense has been, New England is still not far behind. Atlanta is first in scoring and second in yards gained, but New England is third in scoring and fourth in yards gained. The defensive side of the ball is a different story. The Patriots allowed the fewest points on the season and were eighth in yards allowed. Atlanta was 23rd in points allowed and 25th in yards allowed. This seems to point to a big advantage for the Patriots. The question is whether the Falcon’s offense is appreciably better than that of the Pats. When the scoring gap from first to second is as big as the gap from second to twelfth, it can be hard to gauge the differences at the top as compared to the differences in the meatier part of the bell curve.

I have heard some say that this matchup features the best offense against the best defense. While New England did allow the fewest points this season by many other metrics they were a good defense, but not the best. They are 16th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average – a ranking that is more comprehensive than the others, but harder to explain. They are still much better by that measure than Atlanta at 27th, but from that angle the Pats have an average defense, not the best.

If you want to know how those teams stack up on offense by the same ranking system, Atlanta is first and New England is second. In terms of overall team efficiency, which accounts for all facets of the game, that same ranking system puts New England in first and Atlanta in third. Most angels you can use to look at this game show somewhat comparable offenses and a clear advantage to the Patriots on defense.

The numbers may not tell the whole story though. These teams played in different Conferences and only played five common opponents. They both beat the Broncos, Rams, 49ers and Cardinals and they both lost to the Seahawks in the regular season. The Falcons lost by 2 to Seattle on the road while the Pats lost to them by 7 at home. Atlanta did avenge its loss to Seattle in the postseason.

As far as strength of schedule, the Falcons tied for the toughest schedule as far as opponents’ win/loss record. The Patriots had the 9th toughest schedule by that measure. Atlanta starts to look better through the lens of common opponents and schedule strength.

If you are a Patriots fan, take heart in knowing that I have money on the Falcons. I have a solid history of long shot bets that come up just short. A month ago at the track, I nailed the first five races of a pick six bet and was one win away from turning eight bucks into over three grand. The horse I needed came in second by about an inch. I had to settle for a $40 consolation payout. Last year I had a bet on Lee Westwood to win the Masters at 100-1. He came in second. So if history is any guide, Atlanta will lose a heartbreaker and my wager on them two months ago will be the sole reason for them going down. I suppose I could hedge a bit and put some money on the Pats to guarantee a payday, but that’s not my style. God hates a coward. In for a penny, in for a pound. If you give a mouse a cookie, he’ll want a glass of milk. And so forth.

Ron Jaworski noticed that the Patriots used a certain personnel package on 18 snaps in the AFC championship game. He went back through every game they played this season and found that they only used that package on 10 snaps in all their prior games. That is the kind of thing that makes Belichick so effective and it’s what scares me most as someone with a financial interest in the Falcons. Even if Atlanta comes out ahead and the Patriots look flat, they’ve shown the ability to add a new wrinkle into their offense that confuses the opposing defense and leads to easy yards and points. The Patriots are the best team in the league at executing a new game plan on the fly. They have no blind devotion to any style of football, they will do whatever they think gives them the best chance to win.

My favorite play of the season was a Kansas City touchdown in week 16. Dontari Poe, their nose tackle, came in on offense for what looked to be a 1 yard end zone plunge a la William Perry. Instead, he stopped with the ball and lobbed a td pass over the heads of the defenders. It was an awesome play but they shouldn’t have run it. They already had that game won. In my opinion that is a play to save for a crucial time when they really need to score. They showed their hand too early. The play could have come in handy in their 2 point divisional round loss. Belichick would have saved a play like that for a close playoff game. Andy Reid used it on a meaningless play. That about sums up one of the main differences between those two coaches.

To start the season, most people expected to Patriots to make it to the Super Bowl. Their odds were 6-1 heading into week 1 and they have gone down fairly steadily since. The Falcons, on the other hand, got no love. After they fell off a cliff in the second half of last season, bettors shunned the team heading into this season. You could have gotten the Falcons at up to 100-1 to win it all in the beginning of the year. Even with just a few weeks left in the regular season, their odds were around 20-1. It wasn’t until there were just four teams remaining and the Cowboys were eliminated that Atlanta’s odds dipped below the 6-1 that New England opened at, while the Patriots have been getting closer and closer to even money favorites with each win.

Prop bets are a fun way to keep the game interesting even if it isn’t competitive. You can bet on who will score, how they will score and when they will score. The public likes to bet that there will be a safety, and they’ve been rewarded recently, but I don’t see one happening in this game. I’d also bet against Belichick’s rocking the grey hoodie with cut off sleeves. This game is indoors, he won’t need the hoodie. I always like betting that one team will score three straight times without the other team scoring. It seems unlikely but it happens more than people think. I think there will be a score in the first 6 minutes and I think the first score of the game will be a touchdown. I think there will be a tie after 0-0. I’ll take the over in most scoring, yardage, completion and reception over/unders.

Every year I print up a list of about 20 Super Bowl prop bets. My friends and I put up $10 each and we make selections on all of them. Whoever gets the most right takes the money. It’s a fun way to play all the stupid prop bets without risking a ton. It keeps the game interesting even if it is a blowout. If any of you have the time, I suggest you do the same. Or you can hit me up and I’ll send you a copy of what I came up with.

If I were coming into this game with no prior bets alive, I’d be leaning towards the Patriots. I don’t like them, but I respect them, and I know that betting against them is a good way to lose money. But this gravy train has to end sometime, so why not Sunday? I’ve seen the Patriots lose Super Bowls as the favorite before. I’d love to see it again. Enjoy the game. Let’s go Dirty Birds!