While watching football coverage in the run-up to this season’s playoffs, I’ve seen a lot of commercials for the ESPN show First Take, where Stephen A Smith and Max Kellerman argue over recent sports headlines. I’ve never seen the show because I work when it is on, but the commercials turn me off. I have an aversion to “hot takes” and I feel like there should be topics brought up where at least one of the personalities wants more information to come to light before making an informed decision. I know that the format is intended to be adversarial and I guess that drives the ratings, but I don’t have the energy to care passionately and immediately about every stupid issue, and I can’t understand the allure of two guys constantly going on aggressive rants about daily sports minutia.

Individually, Smith and Kellerman can give entertaining analysis that is also insightful, especially when it is about the fields in which they have more experience covering. Smith’s history covering basketball and Kellerman’s history covering boxing give them unique insights on current topics relating to those sports, but they can’t have an opinion on every sports issue, everywhere, all the time, without losing substance. I have no desire to hear their opinion on the US National Soccer team or some random Olympic sport. I have no idea if they ever discus those topics but it seems like they cover almost anything. Is there ever an issue that one of them is on the fence about? I would love it if just once, one of them said, “Screw this stupid format, I don’t care and I have no opinion. What’s the next topic?”

I guess I should write about football now. With the NFL regular season in the books, we can finally focus on the lead-up to everyone’s favorite football game, the Pro Bowl. It doesn’t get much better than watching two all-star teams play poor quality football with nothing on the line. But the Pro Bowl is still a few weeks off, so we will have to entertain ourselves in the meantime by watching games that matter. The Patriots, Chiefs, Falcons and Cowboys all secured first round byes. The eight remaining playoff teams will fight it out this weekend for the right take on one of those top four teams next week.

Vegas odds show a clear distinction between the top and bottom four teams playing in the wildcard round. The Steelers, Packers, Seahawks and Giants all have Super Bowl odds of between 8-1 and 16-1. Those are reasonable odds for such teams to win the 12 team tournament. The Texans, Raiders, Dolphins and Lions all have Super Bowl odds of 80-1 or higher. Vegas says they have no shot. Even though the Raiders play the Texans this weekend, so one team is guaranteed to move on, bettors still hate their chances and expect the winner to lose big in the divisional round.

Oakland at Houston

The Raiders were up a game on the Chiefs in their division heading into the last week of the regular season. But an injury to starting quarterback Derek Carr in week 16 put a hurting on their chances to keep that lead. Winning in Denver was no guarantee even with Carr, but without him they looked pretty hopeless. At 12-4, Oakland should feel good about their season, but the way things have shaken out over the last 2 weeks, I doubt most Raiders fans are stoked about their chances in the postseason. The best thing going for the Raiders is their wild card round opponent, the Texans, who are the worst team to make the playoffs by most objective measures.

The Texans have scored fewer points this season than every team in the NFL besides the Jets, Browns and Rams. Houston was outscored by 49 points in the regular season. Their saving grace was being in the AFC South, where they got to play Tennessee, Indy and Jacksonville twice. They racked up over half of their wins against those teams and tacked on another over the dismal Bears. Their 7-1 home record does include an early season win over the Chiefs and a mid season win over the Lions, so it’s not all bad, but even if they win this week, they will have to take on tough teams on the road the rest of the way.

The Texans are favored in this one by 3.5 points, and the over/under of 36.5 tells me that bettors think that both of these teams will struggle to score. Gambling may be the only way to make this game watchable. Laying over a field goal with Houston seems like a dumb move, so it’s probably the smart bet, but if I were forced to put money on the game, it would be on Oakland. The game is Saturday at 1:30 Pacific time, so hopefully I’ll be golfing instead of watching it. Unless you are a fan of either team, I suggest you do the same, or if you are in a cold weather city, do whatever it is that people in cold weather cities do for fun in the winter, I am unfamiliar.

Lions at Seahawks

Seattle has been one of the most divisive teams among analysts this season. Everyone agrees that the Patriots and Cowboys are really good teams. Some handicappers rank the Seahawks as a close third to those two, others feel that simply having a strong brand name along with a Super Bowl winning coach and quarterback is driving their odds lower than the fundamentals say they should be. I tend to think they are legit. When their offense is clicking, they’ve looked as good as any team to me. The problem is they have laid some eggs this season, especially on the road, and they will have to win 2 road playoff games to get to the Super Bowl. If you care more about how good a team is at their best, then the Seahawks should appeal to you. Just look at their 31-24 win at New England and what more do you need? If you are more worried about how bad a team can be when things aren’t going their way, then Seattle’s 9-3 loss at Los Angeles early in the season will likely scare you away.

After week 1, I predicted that the Lions would make the playoffs. Even a broken clock is right twice a day, unless you are on military time, then it’s only once. The banged up Lions limped into the playoffs, losing their last 3 games and being outscored by 12 points on the season, but they made it, so I can say that I wasn’t wrong about everything.

None of Detroit’s 9 wins have come against teams that made the playoffs, and their only three road wins were against sub .500 teams. Hence, they are 8 point underdogs at Seattle. This game looks like a double digit blowout for the Seahawks. I’ll lay the points and hope that Detroit is overmatched by Seattle’s defense and the crowd noise.

Dolphins at Steelers

Miami beat the Steelers 30-15 in October, but they are 10 point underdogs in the rematch. Bettors don’t like the Dolphins in this game for a variety of reasons: they have been outscored by 17 points on the season, their victory over Pittsburgh was Miami’s only win against a winning team, Ben Roethlisberger was injured in the game and it was in Miami. Now the Dolphins have to travel to Pittsburgh to play in the cold against a healthy Big Ben while their starting quarterback is injured.

The Steelers have won their last 7 games and they are bettor’s third choice to win the Super Bowl at 8-1. I don’t like those Super Bowl odds for Pittsburgh. They should win easily this weekend, but likely road games at Kansas City and New England as well as a possible Super Bowl matchup against Dallas will be tough, especially considering that the Pats and Cowboys have already beaten the Steelers in Pittsburgh. I would want better odds to entice me to put my money on them running that gauntlet.

Giants at Packers

This one looks like the best game of the weekend. The Giants sport the better record at 11-5, but because they are in the same division as the Cowboys, they will have to travel to Green Bay where they will be 4.5 point underdogs. The Giants are 16-1 to win the Super Bowl and the Packers are 10-1. So Vegas sees this as the only wild card game where both teams have a legitimate chance to win it all.

When Green Bay was 4-6, people started thinking that maybe Aaron Rodgers had lost his mojo. After winning their last 6 in a row, people are talking about his MVP chances. Such is life in the NFL. Our perception of the Packers from mid season to now has probably changed more than that of any other team. The Giants, on the other hand, have plodded along somewhat under the radar except for their week 13 win over the Cowboys and Odell Beckham Jr.’s on again, off again relationship with the kicking net. Beckham is the lone dynamic playmaker in an otherwise ho-hum offense with an okey-doke quarterback and a pension for runs up the middle on first down that gain 2 yards.

The Giants have been winning on the strength of their defense, allowing the second fewest points in the league. Green Bay has been winning with their offense, scoring the fourth most points in the league. Earlier in the season, the Packers beat the Giants by a touchdown at home. A similar outcome seems plausible this weekend so I’ll put my money on Green Bay.

Well that’s all I got for this week. Enjoy the games and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose, unless you win, then you’re just leaving money on the table if you don’t bet the farm.