Heading into last season, the NFL tweaked the rules regarding points after touchdowns. Two point conversions would still be attempted from the 2 yard line but extra point field goals were moved back to the 15 and defences could now return blocked, fumbled or intercepted attempts back to their opponent’s end zone for 2 points. At first, moving the kick back got all of the attention (I don’t like the move because offenses cannot keep defenses guessing with fake kicks now, it is the only play where the offense must tell the officials what it plans to do), but the latter change was hardly mentioned. Now that defences have scored on extra point tries, including Kansas City last week late in the fourth quarter to go up by a point, we might have to pay more attention to that change, and coaches may have to start adjusting their late-game plans. I haven’t seen a team have their quarterback take a knee on extra point tries, but in endgame situations that can be the smartest play.

I’m not saying that Atlanta should have kneeled on their extra point try last week. There was enough time left in the game so it made sense to try to go for 2 and get up by 3 so a field goal wouldn’t beat them. But that choice was not without risk, however minimal, and in that case it bit them in the ass. I don’t think it was a bad decision, just an unfortunate result, but if a team scores a touchdown with little time left to go up by 4, they should probably not try for the extra point because there is a chance it goes the other way and that would make them susceptible to losing to a field goal. I know of no cases in the NFL where a qb taking a knee resulted in a defensive score. So kneeling on the ball to ensure a lead or more than 3 points is the right play in such a situation.

Raiders vs. Chiefs

Probably the most important game of the coming week will be Oakland at Kansas City. The Raiders are 10-2 and up one game on the Chiefs for the lead in their division, but a Chiefs win would make them 2-0 against the Raiders this season and they would own the tiebreaker for the postseason. Both of these teams look likely to make the playoffs, but this game could decide who starts the postseason at home as a division champ and who has to start on the road as a wild card team.

The Chiefs are favored by 3, and I like them to win, but it is a Thursday night game and those tend to get sloppy, and I’ve been low on the Raiders all season to my detriment, so you should probably pick against me if you want to win. I thought Oakland would start to fade as their schedule got tougher, and maybe they still will with all of their divisional road games still ahead of them, but after their dramatic win over Carolina in week 12, I wouldn’t blame you for thinking that this is a team of destiny. If they can go to 11-2 with a win at Kansas City this week, I’ll have to stop being a doubter.

Cowboys vs. Giants

Dallas continues to roll and still has the best record in the league. Their streak against the spread did come to an end, as they failed to cover in their last 2 wins, but not much else has gone wrong this season for them or their backers. This week they have a chance to avenge their only loss as they take on a Giants team that beat them by 1 point in the season opener. The Giants are 3 games back of Dallas with 4 games to go. The Cowboys can clinch it with a win, but the Giants can make things interesting if they are able to sweep the season series. They would be 2 back with 3 to play and they would hold the tiebreaker. Dallas is favored by 3, but the Giants have only lost once at home this year so we should see a good game. Despite my aversion to betting on the Giants, I will probably take the points there.

AFC South

No team in the AFC South has more wins than loses. The Texans, Colts and Titans are all .500 teams and one of them will host a playoff game. The Broncos are third in their division but would be in first by 2 games if they played in the AFC South. The schedule is heavy on divisional play and that’s why division winners get a home playoff game, but every year there seems to be at least one bad division that doesn’t have a playoff caliber team. I’d much rather see the best teams in the postseason, so I’d support a rule where teams must go above .500 to make the playoffs. The postseason should be for good teams, not teams that aren’t as bad as three other foes.

Only the Jets, Browns, Bears and Rams have scored fewer point than the Texans this season. Houston has been outscored by 50 on the year but would be hosting a playoff game if the season ended after last week. Bettors expect the Colts to turn it around and win the division, but with games at Minnesota and Oakland still to come, they may not break .500. The Titans have to play Denver and Kansas City in their next two games. Looking at the schedule, it’s plausible that no AFC South team is able to win 3 of their last 4 and one of them will make the playoffs at 8-8 and host the defending champion Broncos at 10-6.

Super Bowl Odds

The Patriots are still the favorites, despite losing Gronkowski for the season. After the Pats lost to the Seahawks at home and once Gronk was placed on injured reserve, most analysts I heard or read were much lower on New England’s chances this season. But their odds don’t reflect the latest whims of the pundits. The Patriots are 2-1 to win it all, up a bit from their low odds of 7-5 but still solid favorites and not the odds you would expect from listening to the sports talk chatter. Losing Gronk hurts, but they are still the team that opened 3-0 with no Tom Brady and Gronk only playing in one game where he didn’t catch a pass. New England leads the league in point differential and is fourth in yardage differential (although the top 2 teams in yardage differential, the Cardinals and Saints, are a combined 10-13-1 so maybe that metric isn’t so useful). While it seems like a lot of different teams could win it all right now, the Pats are still a deserving favorite, just at a price that I wouldn’t touch.

The only other teams with single digit Super Bowl odds are the Cowboys at 7-2 and the Seahawks at 9-2. If I had to bet on one of the top 3 teams I’d take Seattle because their odds are the highest and when their offense is clicking I think they are the best team. Their 3 loses and 1 tie were all on the road and in three of those games they failed to score a touchdown, so there have been plenty of times when their offense couldn’t hack it. But I’ll take my chances on a team that hasn’t lost at home and has beat the Patriots on the road. The Cowboys are a good story but I don’t think they are a good bet right now. I’d rather have my money on the teams with experienced, Super Bowl winning quarterbacks than trust the rookie under center at similar odds.

The next tier of contenders according to Vegas odds are the Chiefs, Raiders and Steelers at 10-1, 12-1 and 12-1 respectively. Vegas obviously agrees with my sentiment that Oakland is not as good as its record as they have higher odds than the Chiefs and the same odds as the 7-5 Steelers. But if Oakland can win at Kansas City, their odds are sure to drop and the Chiefs’ odds will rise. If you like the Raiders and think they will win this week, now is the time to bet them. If you like the Raiders but think they will lose this week, hold out for better odds.

Of the higher odds teams, I like Atlanta at 20-1. They are fifth in the league in point differential and have road wins over Oakland and Denver and a tough 2 point loss at Seattle. The Falcons have been a streaky team over the last 2 seasons, so for me, 20-1 looks enticing on a team that can play well with top teams and has the ability to get hot and go on runs.

The Colts, Lions, Giants, Packers and Broncos are all in the 20-1 to 30-1 range. I’d think about taking a flier on Denver at 30-1. The defending champs are 8-4 but third in their division despite having a better point differential than the teams ahead of them. Their odds would be lower if they were in a weaker division but with the Raiders and Chiefs around, they’ll have to hope for a wild card spot and win in the postseason on the road. It’s a tall order, but at longer odds the price may be right.

Well that’s it for me this week. I’m heading to Vegas to put my money where my mouth is, as long as I don’t lose it at the tables on my way to the sports book.