NFL Read Option – Week 10
I am always interested in the types of behavior that we do and do not tolerate as a society. Sometimes I think that we are a fairly evolved species and that we strive to treat others well regardless of the circumstance or result. Other times it seems pretty clear that we will act as poorly and as immaturely as we are allowed to get away with. A prime example of the latter sentiment is the NFL head coach, or almost any high level coach for that matter.
Each Sunday, I watch coaches on the sideline that behave like children. They throw tantrums, break things, make irrational decisions and act incredulous when their logic is questioned. They bench their best players that give their team the best chance to win after a fumble or missed play because apparently winning is not as important as their whims and supremacy.
No player wants to fumble, but fumbles happen. Too many coaches are willing to bench their best players after a fumble, even if the replacement player is less skilled and historically more prone to fumbling. These are not rational decisions. They are knee-jerk reactions to inevitable setbacks.
No one really calls out coaches on this behavior the same way no one calls out their boss on it. We all see and acknowledge poor behavior that would not be accepted elsewhere but we say nothing because the person behaving poorly is in a position of power over us. And the person behaving poorly will typically fall into line when they are finally around someone in a position of power over them. I guarantee these same head coaches behave with a lot more decorum and respect when they are talking to the owner.
Maybe we aren’t as good as we think we are. Maybe there is just an enormous amount of societal pressure to fall in line and our self regulating methods of getting along make us feel guilty when we do not. The more normal you are, the more normal you are expected to behave. The more exceptional you are, the less people will care if you don’t behave normally. It would be nice if people with success and power were held to higher standards, but the reality is, we consistently lower the bar of acceptability for them. Now we have to reap what we have sown in the form of whiny, entitled leaders that are the centers of their own universes.
How ‘Bout Them Cowboys
Dallas has not lost a game since the season opener. They are the hottest team in the league and they have the best record at 8-1. The strength of their team is the offensive line and the beneficiaries are rookies Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott. Dak has thrown for 14 touchdowns and ran for another 4, while only tossing 2 picks. Elliott leads the league in rushing and is averaging a rushing touchdown per game.
Their new skill players are good, and they have the benefit of playing behind the best offensive line in the league, so big numbers should be expected. Ezekiel Elliott leads the league in yards before contact, meaning his o-line has given him more yards with their blocking than any other running back. But he is also a top running back in other metrics like yards after contact. His skills and that o-line have made him an overwhelming favorite to win rookie of the year and he is the third choice for MVP at 9-1.
The second choice for rookie of the year is teammate Dak Prescott. He would likely be favored in most other years but Elliott has rushed for over a thousand yards just 9 games into the season so there is nothing wrong with being second, especially to the guy you hand the ball off to. No one expected Dak to lose the starting job when Tony Romo came back, and Tony’s recent statement supporting Dak as the starter has ensured there will be not a qb controversy.
If it were a team like the Chargers, fans would feel good about the season with a playoff win and they would be content to have hope for the future, but because it’s Dallas, if Dak doesn’t take the Cowboys to the Super Bowl, people will no doubt question if they would have had a better chance to win with Romo. Coach Jason Garrett may not have much of a choice in the matter, depending on the owner’s whims, but his decision will be questioned either way if they suffer an early playoff exit.
Because Prescott has been winning and playing well, the easy decision is to keep rolling with him. But a win doesn’t mean you played your best game, and past results are no guarantee of future returns. I know there is an unwritten rule about having one quarterback, but if I were the coach and Romo was healthy, I’d want him and Dak to play. They are already in great playoff position, why not see what you got so you can be more confident that you have the right guy under center in the playoffs? I know it won’t happen, but it would be cool to see Dallas play Dak and Romo on alternating quarters or possessions at some time later in the season. Maybe they can sign Tim Tebow for designed qb runs and have some kind of 3 quarterback system. I know I’m being stupid, but the heart wants what it wants. I’d still like to see Romo get some playing time, at least in mop up duty. But he didn’t make it through his first series in the preseason before getting hurt so maybe it’s safer if he just holds the clipboard.
The fact that Dallas has a rookie qb may be why they aren’t the favorites to win it all. Bettors still like the Patriots more than any other team, even after their loss to Seattle. The Patriots are 9th in yardage differential and second behind Dallas in point differential. Tom Brady is the favorite to be MVP, and Belichick is the mad genius that does whatever it takes to win. They are a deserving favorite, but I hope they lose in the playoffs and then Ben Affleck cries.
The Raiders are 7-2 and I shouldn’t have doubted them. But the Chiefs and Broncos also have 7 wins in their division, and Oakland still has to play both of those teams on the road. So I will continue to doubt them. They are in good playoff position, but I still like Kansas City or Denver to take the division. Although, Oakland should pick up another win against Houston this week so I’m picking against a team that I think will be 8-2. I’m probably just being stubborn.
Speaking of Houston, their record is one of the bigger anomalies so far this season. They are 6-3 but they have been outscored by 27 points on the season and outgained by over 8 yards a game. I guess most of us don’t think of the Texans as an elite team, so we won’t be surprised when they regress to the mean.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Cardinals are a .500 team but many of their stats put them near the top of the league. They have outscored their opponents by 42 points, fifth best in the league, and they are first in the league in yardage differential. I hear talk of Carson Palmer being on the decline and people are generally dismissive of Arizona’s chances. But I won’t write off a team that leads the league in yardage differential despite not playing its best football. If Palmer gets hot late in the season, the Cardinals at 25-1 to win it all right now could look like a nice bet.
Another nice bet if you had it was Trump to be our next president. I never took him seriously until he became the Republican nominee. Even after that, most betting markets consistently showed his odds to be longer than one would think relative to his numbers in the polls. But polling was the one area of analysis where his strengths actually showed. He consistently said things that conventional wisdom said would cause him to lose. He received less support from his own party than any major candidate in my lifetime. He failed to pull the endorsement of any major newspapers. In fact, papers that always endorsed the Republican candidate in the past came out for Hillary or at least against Donald.
By traditional metrics, Donald’s campaign was doomed from the start. But tradition doesn’t vote, money doesn’t vote and this year, a whole lot of people didn’t vote. The scorched earth campaigns turned off so many voters that Trump was able to win despite getting less votes than last election’s loser, and less votes than his opponent for that matter. The Hillary camp played defense and tried to run out the clock. The main theme of their campaign seemed to be, Donald Trump is bad and Hillary is not Donald Trump. They also got caught in the no man’s land of trying to build off of the previous administration’s accomplishments while also trying to offer a new, different and better way forward. Her campaign was trying to get us not to change horses mid-stream. Donald’s campaign was trying to get us to douse the stream with gasoline and light it on fire. The chaos candidate won and now we can either fight the flames or watch it burn.
Sometimes I can’t tell if the world is full of idiots or if I’m an out of touch intellectual elitist. It’s likely a little of both but more of the latter. I don’t see how we all couldn’t have decided on one of the sensible adults in the race, but we couldn’t, and now we will be governed by a man who ran on a platform insults and incoherent policies. I heard some conservatives say they didn’t like the man but voted for him because, what’s the worst he can do? I guess we will find out. From Brexit to President Duterte in the Philippines to Poland’s Law and Justice Party to Donald Trump, I fear that voters of the world are increasingly choosing to harm themselves. Hopefully this is just a phase we are going through, or maybe I’m completely wrong about the best paths to widespread prosperity and the populists will have the last laugh. I am not excited about the direction our government is headed, but I’d rather be wrong in a prosperous and peaceful world than right in a world full of violence and despair.