Well that was quick. Last week I wrote about the Vikings’ record against the spread and their recent history of causing turnovers on defense and avoiding them on offense. This week, they turned the ball over 3 times in the first half and fell to the Eagles. There goes the last undefeated team of the season and the only team that was perfect against the spread. All things must end; the only thing permanent is change.

Minnesota’s defense still created plenty of turnovers and chances for the offense, but on the other side of the ball they coughed it up and squandered good opportunities. Throw in a kick return for a touchdown by Philadelphia and Sunday just wasn’t Minnesota’s day. I wouldn’t make too much of the loss. It just shows what most people already assumed about this team, its best path to victory is through solid defense and mistake free offense. Vegas expects them to get back on track next week against the struggling Bears on Monday night. The current five and a half point spread is the second highest of the week.

The Eagles continue to experience highs and lows with their first year coach and rookie quarterback. After starting 3-0, Philadelphia dropped its next two games heading into week 7. After a nice win over the previously undefeated Vikings, they are up to 4-2 and just a game behind Dallas in their division. This week’s Sunday night game between the Eagles and Cowboys should be a good matchup. Neither team was expecting to start the season with a rookie under center, but a Tony Romo injury and a Sam Bradford trade put Wentz and Prescott in the spotlight. They are now a combined 9-3 this season. I’m not sure many people expected these 2 teams to be in this position after having losing seasons last year, but here they are, along with their obnoxious fans who have emerged from the shadows of mediocrity to once again be the loudest, drunkest jerks in the bar.

Before the start of the season, Oakland and Jacksonville were two teams that many hyped as being on the improve. Both teams have good young talent at the skill positions, but Oakland has found ways to translate that into wins this season while Jacksonville has not. The Raiders’ 33-16 win over the Jaguars last week showed that Oakland has figured something out that Jacksonville needs to learn. Both teams gained an equal amount of yards on Sunday but Oakland did a much better job of turning those yards into points.

On the year, the Raiders are worse than every team in the league except San Francisco and Cleveland as far as yardage differential, but they are 5-2 with a +6 point differential. The Jaguars are 19th in the league in yardage differential but they have been outscored by 43 points on the year and are 2-4. The Raiders are finding ways to win and the Jaguars are finding ways to lose.

Oakland will try to go to 5-0 on the road when the play Tampa Bay this week. Vegas has the game as a coin flip. If the Raiders can beat the Buccaneers and another 10 A.M. Pacific Time start, they will have some confidence heading into the second half of the season where their schedule gets tougher. I’ve been expecting Oakland to fade a bit all season but that might not start to happen until they get to 6-2, which is as good as a team could hope to start. I’m slowly preparing to eat crow with regards to this team, but I still think they will start losing in the second half of the season and then I will say I told you so. They have 2 games against Denver and all of their divisional road games waiting for them, as well as home games against the Texans, Panthers, Bills and Colts. I don’t see them doing better than .500 over the home stretch.

The defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers are last in their division at 1-5. Anyone who says they called that before the season is lying. After losing only one regular season game last year, it’s hard to believe that they are almost out of the playoff hunt before the season is half over. They badly need to run off some wins. Hopefully they made the best out of their bye week. If they are to get back on track this Sunday, they will have to do it with a win over the Cardinals. Arizona leads the league in yardage differential, but they are 3-3-1 and a game and a half back in their division. If the Panthers can beat a good team that needs a win, maybe that will start a run that gets them back to the postseason. If they can’t get past the Cardinals, their season is toast.

Odds

After taking in the first 7 weeks of the season, bettors have put the Patriots in a class of their own. Their odds of winning the Super Bowl are between 2-1 and 3-1 depending on where you look. The next closest team odds-wise is the Seahawks at between 6-1 and 7-1. I can’t deny that the Patriots look like the best team right now, but I hate to take any team at odds that low.

Winning a Super Bowl is hard and winning bets won’t be paid until February. If I’m locking up my money for that long, I want a chance for a nice payday. The Broncos at 14-1, the Chiefs at 20-1 and the Falcons at 30-1 all look like decent wagers to me. They will probably lose, but you don’t need to hit many of those types of bets to be profitable. At this point in the season I’m looking for teams that I think are likely to make the playoffs and that have double digit odds. Anything can happen in the postseason and if a bet with a nice payout is still alive, you can always hedge with some money on the other team to guarantee a payday.

Most teams’ odds to win it all haven’t changed too drastically, but there are a few big revisions that are worth mentioning. Here’s a look at some of the biggest movers odds-wise, from the preseason/week 1 until now:

The Cowboys went from 25-1 after Romo was injured in the preseason to 8-1 now. Dak Prescott has Dallas on top of the division after winning their last five games and the Cowboys tend to take more public money than most teams anyway so it’s a perfect storm.

Minnesota went from 20-1 at the season opener to 8-1 now. Even after losing their last game they are still a top 5 team in bettor’s eyes. The public souring on their main divisional rival, the Packers, also helps explain the drop in odds.

Atlanta went from 80-1 to 30-1. Most people focused on the Falcon’s late season collapse last year and Carolina was thought to be a lock to win that division. Atlanta has played well against tough teams. While their record could be better, 4-3 is good enough to lead their division.

Carolina went from 12-1 to 80-1. Those odds are still much lower than those of other divisional bottom dwellers. They’ve had some bad breaks but they are still seen as a good team. Those odds might be worth a $20 wager on the off chance that they are able to turn things around in time. They are still only two and a half games back in their division and bettors obviously aren’t confident in the leader, Atlanta, who as I mentioned above still has big odds.

Cincinnati went from 12-1 to 40-1. They have disappointed early and are one game under .500, but they are just a game back of the Steelers in their division. With Ben Roethlisberger out, the Bengals may be able to catch Pittsburg, and if they can make the postseason, 40-1 would be nice.

NBA

The basketball season has tipped off and it’s hard not to notice the organizational differences between the NBA and the NFL. At the top, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell is generally despised by players and their comments and social media posts often show open hostility towards him. The players and the league are constantly butting heads and Goodell is often portrayed as authoritarian and out of touch. NBA commissioner Adam Silver seems to get along with players, owners and other league employees. He also seems genuinely concerned with social issues and shows a desire to work with the players to affect positive change through community outreach programs. Silver is likeable and engaged, Goodell is hated and distant.

Both the NFL and NBA are run by a good-old-boys like group of billionaire owners, but the NFL seems a lot older and stuffier to me. The NBA has kicked out an owner and forced him to sell his team because he made racist comments that were recorded. The NBA recently took the All-Star game out of North Carolina in response to a law it feels is discriminatory. The NBA has an owner that is actively stumping for one presidential candidate while engaging in twitter feuds with another. Those things don’t happen in the NFL. The NFL does its best to keep a tight lid on things and limit individuality.

Another thing you don’t see in football is the current situation in Cleveland. Lebron James has Dan Gilbert by the balls. It’s rare, and maybe unprecedented for a player to have this much leverage over an owner, and I love it. Dan Gilbert needs Lebron way more than Lebron needs him and both sides know it. With Lebron, the Cavs are a lock to win the East and play for the NBA championship every year. Without Lebron, the Cavs are irrelevant. Real estate in Cleveland isn’t exactly a booming market, so the value of the team is more directly tied to its success and popularity.

Lebron can get Dan Gilbert to hire any coach he wants and go after any player he wants. The Cavs are one of only two teams that is paying a luxury tax this year for exceeding the salary cap, the Clippers are the other – how times have changed. Dan Gilbert knows that now is not the time to be cheap. Anything he has to spend to keep Lebron around is worth it, and Lebron isn’t Gilbert’s buddy, so there will be no discounts.

That’s all I got for this week. Have a happy Halloween everyone, and if some kids come to your door that are a little older than the rest, or not in costume, or not from your neighborhood, just give them some freakin’ candy. It is not a time to be stingy with the fun size Snickers. Even if you are a miserable curmudgeon, it is in your own self interest not to anger kids on a night known for pranks. Just go with it for one night.