We are six weeks deep into the NFL season and divisional races are taking shape. The NFL is often referred to as a reshuffle league and that is certainly how it seems this season. Teams that started undefeated are now on losing streaks and teams that started poorly are making a run. Last season, Kansas City started 1-5 but went onto win their next 10 games and make the playoffs, while Atlanta started 6-1 but went 2-7 the rest of the season and missed the playoffs. If your team is struggling, don’t give up just yet. And if your team is rolling, resist the urge to count them chickens.

Denver started 4-0 but has since dropped its last 2. They are now tied with Oakland for the lead in their division. Early in the season, I wrote about the Raiders taking more bets to win the division than the Broncos and how I thought those bets would be losers. I’m looking a little stupid now but I stand by my call to fade the Raiders.

Despite being 4-2, Oakland has been outscored on the season by 11 points, they are second to last in the league in yardage differential, and they have not outgained their opponent in yards per play in any game this season. After losing their last 2 games, Denver is still a top 10 team in yardage and point differential. Even though Oakland and Denver have the same record, the Broncos’ stats are superior.

The Eagles started 3-0 but have since dropped their last 2. Philadelphia still has the third highest point differential in the league on the strength of their early season blowout wins. They also sit tenth league-wide in yardage differential. The Eagles have improved but so has their division. At the end of last season, they were second in their division with a losing record. Right now, they have a winning record but still sit behind Washington and Dallas.

Baltimore started 3-0, then lost their next 3 and are now a .500 team. Each of their games have been decided by less than 7 points, so it’s feasible that they are either 3 plays away from being undefeated, or 3 plays away from being winless. They are fourth in the league in yardage differential so that would indicate they are closer to the former than the later. And they are only a game back of the Steelers who will likely miss Ben Roethlisberger for a few games. But for reasons that I can’t properly explain, the Ravens are a team that I just can’t get excited about.

Teams Getting Hot

Buffalo dropped their first two games and most people made fun of them, including me. They have not lost since and are now 4-0 and have outscored their opponents by 59 on the season, the highest margin of any team. They are still a game back of the Patriots in their division and they were fortunate to play New England early when Tom Brady was out. While the Pats still look like a strong bet to win the division, Buffalo getting to the playoffs as a wildcard team is not a laughable notion like it was after week 2.

Washington dropped their first 2 games, but like the Bills, they have not lost since. They have scored as many points as they have allowed this year, so by that metric they are a mediocre team and should regress. Most stats show them to be an average team and that’s what I think they are. Maybe they can get to 10 wins off the strength of this hot streak, but I think they are a .500 team, and if they play that way from now on, they will finish at 9-7, just like last season.

Dallas lost its first game and has not lost since. They are fifth in point differential and fifth in yardage differential. They are led by a rookie quarterback and a rookie running back. Dallas fans should feel good about the future. Dak Prescott has not been asked to do too much, but he hasn’t screwed up either. He hasn’t thrown for 300 yards in a game but Dallas hasn’t needed him to. After he tossed 3 touchdowns against Green Bay last week, most analysts said that he should remain the starter when Tony Romo is healthy. I can see why people wouldn’t want to ruin a good thing, but if Dak has a poor game I think most of the same people will say that Romo needs to play. I don’t know what I would do if I were the coach. Those wins are the team’s, not Dak’s, and maybe they would be undefeated with a healthy Tony Romo. At least it is a problem that most teams would love to have.

We are far enough along into the season to check the stats to see if they confirm our impressions. A winning strategy for gamblers is usually to back the teams that are better than their record indicates and fade the teams that are worse than their record. But the numbers don’t always tell the whole story and sometimes results can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent(this is why I do not short stocks when I think they are too high – irrational exuberance may still push them higher).

The Vikings are the last undefeated team remaining and they are an interesting case study by the numbers. In their last 21 games, they are 18-3 against the spread. That is extremely rare. Over the long term teams should be be 50% against the spread. Statistical anomalies are common over the short term and Minnesota’s success may be just that. But maybe the betting public is missing something with this team. The Vikings’ record has been better than their advanced statistics may indicate, but maybe those stats aren’t telling the whole story.

The Patriots are a team that has performed better than the advanced metrics would predict for years. Bettors now attribute this to Belichick’s superior coaching, and that premium is priced into all New England betting lines. Despite going 11-5 last year and not losing yet this season, no such premium exists for the Vikings. Something has to give soon, either their record or their price. They are 13th in yardage differential this year, which is certainly not elite. That may be why, despite continuing to win, bettors aren’t piling on.

The advanced stats tend to ignore turnovers. Sharp bettors often see them as fluky because they tend to even out over the long run, but there should be defenders that are better at making interceptions or causing fumbles than others and there should be offensive players that are better at taking care of the ball than others. The Vikings have not thrown a pick or lost a fumble all season and they cause their opponents to turn the ball over more than twice a game. Without that edge, their record would not be as good. But what if they have that edge because they are that much better when it comes to defensive pressure and offensive ball controll? Then it would make sense to keep betting on Minnesota because they have an edge that our analytics aren’t accounting for.

Elections

On September 23, just 2 days before the first presidential debate and after a month of Trump gaining in the polls, Ted Cruz officially endorsed the Donald. After holding out through even his convention speech, Ted finally caved at the worst possible moment. Since the first debate, Trump has been plummeting in the polls. Trump is picking fights with his own party as officials distance themselves from his comments and behavior. Cruz could have claimed the high ground and helped reshape the party after Trump loses spectacularly if he continued to withhold support. Now he looks ready to go down with the ship.

I don’t like Ted Cruz, so I am smiling as I write this. I think that going forward, there will be a significant difference in the success of Republicans that denounced Trump versus those that supported him. Trump’s campaign lacks both laudable conservative principles and basic human decency. I don’t typically vote for Republicans because I like clean air and water, and I don’t blame poor people for society’s problems. But in the future I will listen with a sympathetic ear to those Republicans that refused to endorse Trump and I will discredit the others that sold out to their party’s nominee and compromised their principles for this tangerine abomination.

As I am writing this we are three weeks away from the election. As far as most people are concerned, it can’t be over soon enough. We have one debate left and likely a few more scandals and leaked documents to sift through. Even if something comes out that is devastating to the Clinton campaign, Trump might not shut up long enough for people to hear about it. Between the farce of this presidential election and the 17 propositions on the ballot in California, I’m starting to wish we were ruled by benevolent philosopher kings. But my vote is my voice, my right and my privilege. So I guess it’s time for me to study up on the merits of a proposition that would require adult film stars to wear condoms, among others.