In trying to forecast the outcome of a football game, would we be better off ignoring the most recent game each team played? It seems counterintuitive to think that we could be more accurate in our analysis while excluding recent and relevant data. But our brains are feeble, and what we just saw has an outsized impact on what we think will happen next. Human nature tends to project patterns from the near past onto the near future in an overly simplistic, linear-like fashion. We want to bet on the team that won big last week and we hate betting on teams that just got blown out.

Vegas takes advantage of our recency bias. The betting lines swing too far after blowout wins and loses. The public money pours in on the hot team and when the tide turns, only those brave enough to back last week’s losers get paid. If a line doesn’t make sense to you, you are usually better off taking the illogical side. Money is coming from somewhere to move the line to where it is, and if that movement doesn’t make sense to the casual fan, then you know that the ignorant masses are on the other side, lining up to get fleeced by their bookies.Highs and Lows.The Patriots won big in week 3 to stay undefeated without Tom Brady. They were looking like a team that the public wouldn’t want to bet against. So of course they got shut out at home in week 4. They only allowed 16 points, so it’s easy to imagine they could have won with Brady, but everyone expected their offense to be competent heading into the game and yet they put up a goose egg.

The Steelers got blown out and only managed to score a field goal against the Eagles in week 3. In week 4, they put up 43 points in a blowout win over Kansas City. We knew that the Steelers were a good team before they lost big, and we know they are now, but we weren’t as sure heading into week 4, when we just watched them play poorly.

In week 3, Julio Jones caught just 1 pass. In week 4, he caught 12 passes and totalled over 300 yards. We knew Julio was one of the best receivers in the league, even after a disappointing week 3 performance. But we thought he may be at less than full strength or looked for other excuses beyond him just having the occasional down game.

Teams and Players have good games and bad games. When we have just witnessed one of their best or worst efforts, it skews our perception of their overall quality. We look for reasons for why things have fundamentally changed. And next week, instead of expecting a regression towards the mean, we will instead be surprised by it.

What’s up with Arizona and Carolina?

The Panthers and Cardinals faced off in the NFC Championship game last season. Both started the season as one of the top choices to win the Super Bowl. Both missed a late field goal to lose their season opener. Both got back on track with big wins in week 2 and all was right in the world. But they both have yet to notch another victory and are now 1-3 after both teams’ starting quarterback left the last game with a concussion. Before the season, their week 8 showdown looked like it would be for NFC supremacy, now it looks like it may just be for relevancy.

I don’t want to get hung up on a few losses. Especially after I wrote about the value of ignoring recent results. But I also don’t want to assume a 1-3 team is good just because we thought they were supposed to be. Even if these teams are better than their record, and I think they are, they still have a tough road back to the playoffs. Carolina has arguably the weaker division, but Arizona has better stats. The Cardinals are fourth in yardage differential and have a positive point differential, whereas the Panthers have been outscored on the season. They both still have a chance, but they need to start winning now and they may be without their starting quarterback next week. Good luck.

Chargers Being Chargers

In week 4, the Chargers went up by 13 points halfway through the fourth quarter. They then allowed Drew Brees and the Saints to score 2 touchdowns in the final 5 minutes and lost by a point. As a Southern California resident, I like to see the Chargers do well. I’ve dabbled in fanhood and been to a few of their games. But I can never fully embrace the team because losses like last week’s are just too typical for them.

The homefield advantage in San Diego is almost non-existent. Life is too good down there. The laid back crowd rarely disrupts the opposing team’s communications on offense. And a good part of the crowd is usually there to root for the other team. California has lots of transplants and December home games against teams from cold weather cities tend to attract opposing team’s fans that are looking for sunshine.

It’s not like San Diego fans are bad or like to lose, but when they can go back to their nice homes, beautiful weather and delicious Mexican food, the loss just doesn’t hurt as much. Football wins and losses mean less when you are wealthy and beautiful like everyone in San Diego is. And spending hours getting in and out of a worn down old stadium is beneath them anyway.

Undefeateds

Week 4 saw the previously undefeated Ravens and Patriots lose at home. We are now down to 3 teams with unblemished records. Denver was favored for the first time this year in a road game at Tampa Bay. They won by 20 and continue to exceed expectations as they are now 4-0 against the spread this season. The Vikings beat the Giants at home on Monday night. Like Denver, they are winning with strong defense and outperforming their odds. The third undefeated team is the Eagles, who managed to avoid a loss on their bye week and stayed at 3-0.

Each of the remaining unbeatens are led by quarterbacks that were not their team’s expected starter coming into the season. And many teams with star quarterbacks have a losing record. Cam Newton, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Matt Stafford and Andrew Luck are all on teams with 1-3 records. Trevor Siemian, Carson Wentz, Shaun Hill and Sam Bradford have yet to lose.

Injured Quarterbacks

Cam Newton and Carson Palmer both suffered concussions on Sunday. With their teams at 1-3, it’s not a good time to be out. Fortunately for both teams, their week 5 opponents are San Francisco and Tampa Bay. If they can win against divisional opponents with their backups, they will be 2-3 heading to a week 6 game where they should have their starters back. If they drop another game against a weak team, it may be time to panic.

Trevor Siemian missed the second half of last week’s game with an injured left shoulder. Rookie Paxton Lynch stepped in and went 14 of 24 for 170 yards and a touchdown. Lynch was a first round pick so the Broncos obviously like him. They’d like to give him more time to develop, but it must be nice to know that he can perform if they need him. Denver’s defense will keep them in most games, so they don’t need a quarterback that will throw for multiple touchdowns as much as they need someone who won’t turn the ball over.

Patrick Reed – American Hero

I know that golf isn’t on a lot of people’s radar, especially without Tiger Woods involved, but last weekend featured my favorite golfing event, the Ryder Cup. It is a bi-annual USA vs. Europe team event that has a style of golf not seen the rest of the year. I’m glad the US won, and I feel a need to sing the praises of Patrick Reed. He was the American’s best player all week and in his final round on Sunday, he took on Europe’s best player, Rory McIlroy, in a dramatic match play competition.

Golf fans are usually pretty subdued, but not at the Ryder Cup. Fans are rowdy. They loudly cheer the home team and heckle the visitors. The pressure filled environment causes some to wither, but it brought out the best in Reed and McIlroy. They played to the crowd and each other. As big shot after big shot was made Patrick implored the home crowd while Rory antagonized them.

In a four hole stretch on the front 9, McIlroy rolled in four consecutive birdies, only to lose ground to Reed who played the same stretch with 3 birdies and an eagle. That was the greatest four holes of golf I have ever seen. Huge putts and theatrical celebrations made the raucous crowd go wild. After playing spectacular golf for 17 holes, Reed still needed to find a way to birdie the 18th to get the win. When he drained the winning putt, I felt prouder to be an American than I ever thought a guy hitting a ball into a hole with a stick could make me feel. You’re the man Patrick, thanks for being on our side.

Well, that’s about it for me this week. The Vice Presidential nominees had a debate Tuesday that was pretty boring. Tim Kaine’s constant interruptions were a bit annoying, but he was obviously coached to do anything he could to make Mike Pence own Donald Trump’s words. Kaine continually asked Pence to defend Trump’s rhetoric and Pence continually tried to sidestep or downplay it. Thank God there is only one VP debate. That sideshow cannot compare to the entertainment that is the main event. Trump and Hillary square off in a town hall meeting this Sunday, I can’t wait to hear what the Donald says this time.