We are three weeks deep into the NFL season and only five teams have managed to avoid a loss. If you called Philadelphia and Minnesota to be the last 2 undefeated teams in the NFC, I hope you made some money. The Vikings have won twice as underdogs, including a win over Carolina as 7 point dogs. The Eagles were only underdogs once, against the Bears in week 2, where they won 29-14. Seems hard to figure that the Bears would have been favored from our current vantage point. They have the worst point differential through 3 games and the Eagles have the best. But most people expected the teams currently on top to have some struggles and apparently they still do. Odds and power ranking tend to favor NFC teams with lesser records like the Packers, Cardinals, Seahawks and Panthers.

In the AFC, the Patriots, Ravens and Broncos all have unblemished records. I’m starting to think that the Patriots can win with anyone. They have one more week without Tom Brady and their other quarterbacks have injuries, but I’m not sure if that matters. Bet against New England at your own risk. The Ravens have wins over the Bills, Browns and Jaguars. That’s nothing special, and they were all by less than a touchdown, but their schedule doesn’t look all that tough in the short term so they may stick around atop their division.The Broncos have been underdogs in their last 5 games going back to last season’s playoffs, and they have won them all. Either Vegas has consistently underestimated Denver or they have been overperforming and are due to regress. I think it is a little of both. Bettors like strong quarterbacks but the value of that position cannot be infinite. I think teams with a sexy quarterback are overvalued so it stands to reason that teams without one will be undervalued. The Saints have had a losing record the last 2 seasons and have started this season 0-3, but because they have a coach and quarterback that have won a Super Bowl together, they are seen as a good team that has underperformed. Betting lines imply that New Orleans is better than its record. The defending champs are 3-0 but Vegas still has them at odds of 12-1 or higher to repeat. Without a flashy quarterback, Denver is seen as worse than its record, much like the Vikings.I’m an Idiot

Last week, I talked a fair amount of shit on the Rex Ryan and the Bills. I still think that firing your offensive coordinator after 2 regular season games is a sign of desperation. But their 15-point week 3 win over Arizona will shut me up for a little. I did not see that coming.

Last week I was a bit dismissive of the fact that the Eagles had the best point differential in the league after 2 weeks. I chalked it up to playing weak opponents. In week 3 they beat up on one of the Super Bowl favorites, the Steelers, by 34-3. I didn’t mention how good Carson Wentz was looking after 2 weeks because I attributed it to a simplified game plan with short passes that worked against bad teams. In week 3, Wentz had his best game and the Eagles got their biggest win against their toughest opponent thus far. Now that I am becoming a believer, he will probably play poorly next week. Either way, Rams fans have to be disappointed that their team traded up to get the first pick and passed on Wentz.

After week 1, I talked about the mighty Jim Bob Cooter and how he had gotten Detroit’s offense back on track. I said I would ride the Lions with my early season bets and I felt good week 2 when they were up 12 heading into the fourth quarter. But then they remembered that they are the Lions and gave that game away. After going down by 27 to Green Bay and eventually losing by 7 last week, they are now 1-2. Not the start I envisioned, but they were 7.5 point underdogs to the Packers so I’ll take partial credit for the backdoor cover. And I think they will get back on track with a win against the Bears next week.

Notable Injuries

Manti Te’o tore his left Achilles tendon and will miss the rest of the season. San Diego has lost a major contributor for the year in each of the first 3 regular season games. The Chargers blew a 17 point lead in week 1 and a gave up a 63 yard touchdown pass with less than 2 minutes to play last week to go to 1-2. They have been good at finding ways to lose games and players.

Shane Vereen will miss the rest of the season after having surgery on his triceps. With Rashad Jennings still out with an injured thumb, the Giants backfield could use some help.

J.J. Watt reinjured his back and will likely be out for the season, although there is a chance he could return later. He will probably do everything he can to get back on the field, but maybe he should just take it easy and come back next year. I know that’s not in his blood, but coming back too early from offseason back surgery this year may have contributed to the re injury. After surgery in July, an eight week recovery period was considered the best case scenario. He returned to practice after just over six weeks. He’s a beast, so it would seem wrong to hold him out any longer than necessary, but back problems are weird and maybe they should have exercised more caution.

Presidential Debates

The first presidential debate went down just after the start of the Monday Night Football game. Apparently people were much more excited to see Hillary and Trump square off than the Saints and Falcons because MNF had one of its lowest ratings ever. Meanwhile the debate pulled in Super Bowl type numbers. It’s hard to know what to expect in a debate with Trump, but this one was relatively tame. Hillary didn’t appear sick and Trump didn’t talk about his penis size, so both sides can claim a small moral victory. Trump’s preparation and focus seemed to fade as the debate went on. He almost made it through the night without taking an unsolicited swipe at Rosie O’Donnell, but in the end, he couldn’t help himself.

I’ve written about the election before and I will again, so I won’t take up too much space here, but I’d like to touch on one point. Trump’s continued insistence that the US should have “taken the oil” during our military interventions in the Middle East is laughably absurd and the fact that this is coming from the presidential candidate for a major party blows my mind. In one breath, he decries US foreign policy as being too aggressive and advocates for pulling back. In the next breath, he is advocating imperialist tactics that the global community has long ago rejected. The United States of America does not militarily intervene on foreign soil for the purpose of taking another nation’s natural resources. That shouldn’t have to be said, mature adults should easily embrace this concept.

Well that’s all I got for this week. There are no potential matchups of undefeated teams until week 7 when the Eagles and Vikings square off, then week 14 when the Patriots and Ravens play and finally week 15 when the Patriots play the Broncos. So it’s possible for 3 teams to be undefeated at the end of the regular season. I know that won’t happen but it would be pretty cool and it is not yet impossible. Hopefully the dream will still be alive after week 4.