The first Saturday of May is near and with it comes the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby, America’s oldest continuously run sporting event. Horse racing no longer has the prominence in this nation that it once did. A week ago, most people couldn’t name a single horse in this year’s race. But despite horse racing’s waning influence, the Kentucky Derby continues to draw huge ratings and absurdly large betting pools. In a week, the general public will know the name of the derby winner and will likely have seen at least one interview with the winning jockey, trainer or owner on a morning or night show.

It is time for horse racing to step out from the fringes of society and be a part of the mainstream, at least until the derby winner no longer has a shot at the Triple Crown. If you plan on watching or wagering on the race but know nothing about the horses involved, you came to the right place. As the senior horse racing correspondent for tiltingground.com, I’m here for you with everything you need to know about the run for the roses.

Special Interest Pieces

If you plan on watching TV coverage of the Kentucky Derby, be prepared for a few hours of sad, touching, and uplifting stories about people that are somehow involved with one of the horses. I am not a big fan of these for two reasons. First off, they tend to be overly sentimental and often irrelevant to the actual race. But I mostly dislike them because every once in awhile they get to me. My cold, dead heart is expecting to see a horse race, and when I get all teary eyed watching a story about some disabled kid’s love of horses I become embarrassed, confused and angry. Why are they making me feel feelings?! But the race only lasts two minutes and they have hours of airtime to fill so the sappy stories keep coming. And apparently they suck people in because the derby consistently pulls big ratings.

New Qualifying System

Between 1986 and 2012, spots in the Kentucky Derby were awarded based on a horse’s earnings in graded stakes races. So there were almost 200 races for 2 or 3 year olds at various distances that could all get a horse into the Derby. During that time, upsets were common, including a few big ones like Mine That Bird and Giacomo, both at 50-1.

This will be the fourth Kentucky Derby run where qualifying is based on a point system that includes only 34 races and awards more points to major races that are more recent and run at longer distances. The previous three races under this system have all been won by the favorite. This may simply be an anomaly, but there are reasons to believe that the current system will continue produce less long shot winners.

Pace Makes the Race

The previous system made no distinction between shorter and longer races. That lead to more horses in the race that only won sprints and had no business running in the longer Kentucky Derby distance of a mile and a quarter. The presence of sprinters tends to create a faster pace that benefits closers, but the large number of horses running usually makes it so closers have more traffic problems to deal with. These two factors threw a wrench in the race that made handicapping more like shooting craps.

With the new system that tends to leave speedballs out of the race, frontrunners and stalkers have fared much better. They no longer have to chase torrid fractions so they tend to have more in the tank to hold off the late closers down the stretch. The pace scenario has become more conducive to horses with tactical speed and those horses have done a much better job lately of maintaining their position late in the race.

This year’s field looks to have fewer horses that tend to run near the lead than any recent derby I can recall. Most of the major qualifying races were won by closers this year, so the field has an unusually high number of entrants that tend to start slow and finish fast. For this style to be successful, it helps if the horses with early speed challenge each other at the start of the race so they are more likely to be tired by the end. Unfortunately for the closers, the field only has a few horses that run near the lead (Danzig Candy, Nyquist, Outwork and maybe Destin), so a pace meltdown seems less likely.

West Coast Shooters Look Strong

As a California horse player, I tend to be biased towards the horses based out west. In three of the last four Kentucky Derbies, that bias has made me money as horses based in Southern California have finished first. I know I am not objective, but this year, the west coast crop looks strong again.

Uncle Lino, a local horse that didn’t earn enough points to make the derby, ran behind derby entrants Mor Spirit and Exaggerator in local prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. He finally got away from those two a few weeks ago and he promptly set a new course record in a stakes race at Los Alamitos.

Trojan Nation had never finished better than third when running against maidens in California. Despite that, trainer Paddy Gallagher took the colt to New York to run in the Wood Memorial, their million dollar Derby prep race, and he finished a fast closing second, only beaten by a head. With that finish, Trojan Nation earned enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby even though he has yet to win a race.

Nyquist, also stabled out west, is the undefeated favorite in the derby. But he was not favored over Mohamen when he traveled east to run in the Florida Derby in April. Mohamen was undefeated and the Kentucky Derby favorite in futures wagering when Nyquist challenged him on his home turf in one of the most anticipated derby prep races of the last decade. As the 4-5 favorite, Mohaymen sat off the pace that Nyquist set until the far turn where he started to make his move. He proved no match for Nyquist, who pulled away to win by over three lengths ahead of the second place horse as Mohaymen faded to fourth, beaten by more than eight lengths. Mohamen supporters point out that he was racing wide the whole time and are willing to toss that race out. I feel like that race exposed Mohamen after his easy wins against weaker fields. Either way, another Californian did better than expected when facing top competition from other parts of the country.

Last fall, as two year olds, Nyquist and Swipe ran 1-2 in the big California stakes races. When they went to Kentucky to run against the best two year olds in the country, they again ran 1-2 in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. I don’t see any evidence of horses based out east having the same kind of success when they step out to nationwide competition. I don’t have the best perspective on horses I don’t see run often, but I have a pretty good feel for the west coast horses, and this year, the crop looks as strong as I have seen. I like Nyquist to win and I’d bet that the superfecta contains at least two horses that have run at Santa Anita this year.

The undefeated Nyquist is a deserving favorite, but I would say he is not as respected as he should be. Handicappers like to find excuses for losers and discount winners because that can help them find betting value down the road. But I can’t think of many questions that Nyquist has not answered affirmatively. He has won most of his races from the lead or just off it. But in the biggest, most competitive race of his career, he was eighth of fourteen horses early on and forced four paths wide the entire race, but still closed strong and handily won the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.

If Nyquist had only won with one style or only on one track I could understand the skepticism. But this horse has won on the lead, he has won from behind, he has won sprinting, he has won going long, and he has won major races against top competition in California, Florida and Kentucky. His owner, trainer and jockey have already teamed up to win the Kentucky Derby. I’ve lost enough bets to know that his 3-1 morning line is no gift, but after he hits the finish line first, we might look back and think it was.

Third Race After a Layoff

Many of the horses in this year’s Kentucky Derby were never sure things to make the field and so the focus of their three year old campaigns has been on qualifying for the run for the roses. But a few horses came off of well regarded two year old campaigns and their confident trainers took their time, picked their spots, and now hope to have a fresh horse rounding into form at just the right time. The third race after a horse gets a few months of rest is often seen as their best effort. This isn’t always the case, as some horses run great fresh, but generally speaking the first race back is not the best, and the third race back is the sweet spot after a horse has dusted off the cobwebs, but before it starts to wear down.

If a horse is going to step up and beat Nyquist, it might be one of the horses that is lightly raced this year and waiting to give his best effort. Unfortunately for those horses, Nyquist has also been patiently handled and this will be his third start of the year. If he moves forward this Saturday, it may not matter if any of these horses run their best. But anything can happen in the derby, so let’s look at the other horses that may be primed for their best effort.

Gun Runner – He has two races this year and won them both. He took the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby, both over full fields at the Fairgrounds. Gun Runner’s only loss came last November in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes where he ran fourth behind derby runners Mor Spirit and Mo Tom. His best race was his last, where he won the Louisiana Derby by over four lengths. He has the most qualifying points of any horse in the race and if he’s on the improve, he will be a major player.

Broady’s Cause – He finished third in the fall behind Nyquist and Swipe in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. In his first race of the year, he finished a disappointing 7th in the Tampa Bay Derby this March. But he came back to win the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland in April over derby runner My Man Sam. On paper, I’d put him behind a handful of other derby runners, but trainer Dale Romans has a way of getting horses to run better than their resumes would suggest in big races so I wouldn’t count him out.

Lani – The only foreign horse in the race comes from Japan by way of Dubai. Lani started his year by running fifth in a $300k handicap race in Japan this February. He then traveled to Dubai where he won the UAE Derby in March. He’s got a tough hill to climb as no horse coming from Dubai after winning the UAE Derby has hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. Lani is also a quirky horse that tends to break slow. He gets skittish, doesn’t like crowds, and doesn’t always like to work in the mornings. His first workout at Churchill Downs was the slowest at that distance of any horse running that morning. He is known to loudly yell at horses that walk by his stall and by his actions around female horses, he is looking forward the breeding shed more than anything else. I find it hard not to like this horse after hearing those tidbits. He sounds like a badass. And although I won’t be betting on him, I’d love to see him cause all sorts of havoc before the race and then swoop past the field on the home stretch and win going away.

Interesting Stats

This year, three horses have multiple offspring running in the Kentucky Derby:

Uncle Mo has sired Nyquist, Outwork and Mo Tom.
Tapit has sired Creator, Lani and Mohamen.
Giant’s Causeway has sired Destin and Broady’s Cause.

Each horse doesn’t know any of their kids or baby’s mommas and has not paid a cent in child support – for shame.

This year’s race has seven horses that were bought for more than a quarter of a million dollars, they have all won big money, and some have already turned a profit:

Mohamen – bought for $2.2 million, earned $850k
Nyquist – bought for $400k, earned $3.3 million
Mor Spirit – bought for $650k, earned $650k
Broady’s Cause – bought for $350k, earned $1.1 million
Creator – bought for $440k, earned $760k
Destin – bought for $400k, earned $390k
Majesto – bought for $300k, earned $240k

My Betting Advice

My first piece of advice applies to any horse you want to bet. If you like a horse, I’d put some money on him to show. I usually don’t like show bets, but that is because most races have fewer horses and smaller betting pools so show bets tend to pay so little that the risk/reward is not worth it. But in the derby, with twenty horses running and millions wagered, show bets can still pay well, sometimes not much less than place bets.

In most races, if I like a horse I’ll bet it to win and maybe think of a place bet. In the derby, where anything can happen and the show pool offers so much value, if I like a horse, I’ll bet him to win and bet bigger to show. That way, if my horse hits the board, I won’t walk away empty handed.

Then next bet I would recommend is a simple bet with a strong recent track record. A $1 exacta box with the favorite and every other horse in the race costs $38 and has hit each of the last four years to produce returns of $153, $490, $170 and $36 (with scratches that exacta cost $34). Last year, the bet hit, but did not pay much. However, if you play bigger exacta boxes with the favorite and the top other choices, you can hit the exacta multiple times when it pays less to up your payout. If you don’t like the favorite but find another horse enticing, boxing him with the field for a buck is a good way to make a nice score if your horse can finish in the top two.

I’ll bet Nyquist in a $1 exacta box with the field for $38 and then I will bet additional $1 on exacta boxes with Nyquist and Gun Runner, Exaggerator, Outwork, Broady’s Cause, Creator, Mor Spirit, Danzing Candy and Destin for another $16. I’ll bet a $0.50 trifecta with Nyquist over Gun Runner, Broady’s Cause, Exaggerator, Mor Spirit and Outwork boxed together for $10. And to get me to an even $70 I’ll take a swing at a $1 superfecta with Nyquist on top and Broady’s Cause, Mor Spirit and Exaggerator boxed underneath. If you are betting the races, good luck, and if you feel you need some divine assistance, be sure to start your day with the gambler’s prayer:

Dear God,

Please let me break even today, I could really use the money.