Super Bowl 50 is just days away. The sportsbooks are taking tons of action, the media has descended upon San Francisco (even though the game will be played in Santa Clara), people who have not watched a football game all season are buying squares in their office pool, and the culinary masters of the world are readying smokers, slow-cookers and recipes for brisket, pulled pork, ribs, sliders, nachos, jalapeno poppers and anything else delicious. It is a good time to be alive.

The heavy favorite is a team that opened the season at odds of 60-1 to win it all. The big underdog is a team that had the fourth lowest Super Bowl odds at 9-1 in early September. Obviously, perceptions can change drastically over the course of a season. Carolina is now a five to six point favorite and roughly nine out of ten bets in Vegas sportsbooks have been on the Panthers.

The big bettors usually wait until closer to the game to make their wagers, so the line could still move a point or two. But the Super Bowl is one of the few games where money from casual fans far outweighs money from the sharps. I don’t expect the line to be higher than 6.5 or lower than 4.5. If you want to bet a straight winner, with no point spread, money line odds are around +200 for Denver and -225 for Carolina. That means bets on Denver to win will pay 2-1 and Carolina win bets will pay 4-9.

It is easy to see why the money is coming in the way it is. Denver has a strong defense but their offense hasn’t been that great and Peyton Manning has statistically had one of the worst seasons of his career. Carolina has a strong defense and a strong offense behind Cam Newton, who has played the best season of his career and will likely be league MVP. The Panthers have easily won their playoff games and covered the spread in both. Denver’s playoff wins have both come down to the wire, but the only thing that matters this time of year is winning, and they have done that.

There are over forty players dressed for each team in each game. Each team has eleven players on the field for each play (hopefully). But when you ask the average fan about a football team, they will usually talk about the quarterback. It is the most important position on offense, likely the most important position on the team, and maybe the most important position in any team sport. The two starting quarterbacks in the Super Bowl could hardly seem more different. Cam Newton is big, strong, fast and athletic with a strong arm, a great rushing ability, and a perfect smile. The Peyton Manning we have seen play this season does not check any of those boxes. Age is catching up with Manning, but he is still relevant because of his experience, high football IQ, and ability to read defenses.

Simply put, Carolina passes the eye test, Denver does not. But the Broncos have not looked like a sexy team at any point in the season and they still lost only four games and are playing in the Super Bowl. The Panthers get all the style points. They win and look good doing it. Denver keeps winning because of their defense, which is rarely as aesthetically pleasing as watching a team put up big points, but a win’s a win, and defense is just as important as offense.

On the season, Carolina is 13-5 against the spread and they have won by at least a touchdown in 12 games. Denver is 8-7 against the spread with 3 pushes on the season. The Broncos have won 6 games by at least a touchdown and have only lost by more than three points twice. To the casual viewer, the eye test screams that Carolina will romp, but the statistics are not as clear.

Denver has played seven games against teams that made the playoffs and only dropped two of those games. Denver outgained its opponents by 72 yards per game during the season, averaging 355 yards on offense while giving up 283 yards on defense. Carolina outgained its opponents by 44 yards per game during the season, averaging 367 yards on offense while giving up 323 yards on defense. The Panthers are 12 yards per game better on offense but 40 yards per game worse on defense.

In terms of yards against, Denver is the best defense in the league and Carolina is ranked sixth. That bodes well for the Broncos. But the Panthers have already steamrolled Seattle and Arizona, which were second and fifth in yards against, respectively. Offensively, Carolina is 11th in yards gained and Denver is 16th. So in the rankings, Denver is five spots better on defense but Carolina is five spots better on offense.

I could find more stats but I doubt that would make anything easier to understand. By some measures these teams seem to be evenly matched but by other measures Carolina is much stronger. Most people trying to envision how the game will play out tend to think either Denver will eek out a close win, or Carolina will win in a blowout.

After watching the playoff games, it’s hard for many to feel confident in Denver’s chances. Betting Carolina to win by a touchdown or more seems like a good bet to the casual fan. That is why I am hesitant to take the Panthers to cover. The public consistently overreacts to the most recent events and Vegas consistently profits off of our nearsightedness. When the vast majority of money comes in on one side, that side loses more than it wins. Sportsbooks would stop taking bets if that were not the case. Vegas makes money, the average bettor loses money. The fact that the average bettor is all over the Panthers makes me think that Denver with the points is the smart play. Either way, I’m not confident enough to place a sizeable wager on the outcome of the game. I’ll buy a square and bet a few bucks with friends, but I will spend more time on one of my favorite aspects of the Super Bowl…the prop bets.

Prop Bets

A proposition bet is a wager not on the outcome of a game, but on any event related to the game, like bets on the coin toss or who will score first, catch the most passes, or run for the most yards. You can also have prop bets with your buddies, like who can eat the most hot wings or whether uncle Rico can throw a football over them mountains. I like prop bets, they are often fun and quirky. I know of no other event that has as many prop bets related to it than the Super Bowl. From the length of the national anthem to the color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning coach, if you can think of a variable aspect of the game, you can probably bet on it somewhere.

For the past three years, I have put together a group of 15-20 prop bets on one page and given it out to friends that I watch the game with. We each make our picks and throw in five or ten bucks. Whoever gets the most right, wins the pool. Each bet is a yes/no or over/under type wager so most people should get about half right. Each year I am surprised by how bad we do as a group. Last year only 2 out of 15 people got more than half right.

Although it is a small sample size over a short period of time, my experience with the prop bets has led me to one conclusion, people are bad gamblers. Vegas is good at what it does, but if there was a game with a slight edge to the player instead of the house, I think most people would still lose money on it. If you give the average Joe the opportunity to make a series of wagers, he will eventually go broke. Given enough rope, many of us can’t help but hang ourselves.

One tricky bet I always put in there is whether either team will score three consecutive times. It has happened in each of the last three Super Bowls and I let people know that it happens more often than not, but every year most people pick no. It reminds me of a story I read about a statistics professor who had one student flip a coin 100 times and record the results while the other students made up their own results for the same exercise. The professor was then able to tell which series of heads and tales written down was the result of actual coin flips. The way he could tell was that the real results always had longer streaks of all heads or tails than the made up results. Students were reluctant to write heads four or five times in a row but the coin did not share their reservations. In the real world, random streaks are longer and more frequent than we tend to believe. Heads, tails, heads, tails, heads, tails is just as likely to come up as all heads or all tails. But when we look at the latter sequences, we are rarely able to believe that they are actually random.

Play With Your Food

Super Bowl eats are about as good as it gets for me. A variety of delicious, bite sized snacks at my fingertips is enough to make me forget all my worries. I’d like to share some kind of exotic recipe that I use to make gourmet delicacies, but unfortunately I have the pallet of a 10 year old. So I will share the only Super Bowl treat that I make well and others actually enjoy, the rice krispie treat football.

Three ingredients and some plastic wrap are all you need. Melt butter and marshmallows in a pot, then add rice krispies, the box will tell you how much of each to use. Mix it all up. Then wet your hands to keep the blob of goodness from sticking to you and mold it into the shape of a football, wrap it up with plastic wrap, and put it in the freezer. Check on it every couple of minutes and remold slightly if necessary. After fifteen minutes in the freezer, transfer it to the fridge until halftime of the Super Bowl. At halftime, take it out and toss it around, maybe play a game of touch football with it. Then cut it up and eat it during the second half of the game. I’ve done it twice and it was fun and delicious each time. I encourage you to give it a shot.

As far as who I will bet or root for in the Super Bowl, my heart will be with Denver. I have no connection to Carolina but I do have an affinity for the mile high city. My God Mom is a big Broncos fan and I like underdogs so I will pull for Denver. From a betting standpoint, I think there are two good plays and they are both polar opposites. I think if Denver wins, it will be because of their defense, so I like a parlay of Denver and the under. If Carolina covers the spread, they will have to score a decent amount, so I also like a parlay of the Panthers to cover and the over.

Well that’s all I got folks. It’s been fun writing for Tilting Ground about the NFL this season. I hope you enjoyed it. Once football is over I’ll write a little more about the election and primary season. I’ve discussed Hillary and Bernie a decent amount, hopefully the Republican field is paired down enough soon so I can analyze the statements, records and policies of the key remaining candidates. I’ll probably write a little about college hoops as well since March is just around the corner. In the meantime, enjoy the game and relish the opportunity to eat, drink, and be merry.