We are two weeks into the new year and I am already slacking on my resolution to floss daily. Every other day is still pretty good right? Anyway, the wildcard round of the NFL playoffs has come and gone. Eight teams are three wins away from being Super Bowl champs. Fans of the Bengals and Vikings are likely still wondering what the hell happened. Fans of the Seahawks and Steelers are likely still a little high from their late reprieve from the governor.

If you know me or have read this column before, you know that gambling odds are an important part of my analysis. This is not just because I am a degenerate gambler at heart; it is also because numerous studies have shown that people are better at predicting future outcomes when money is on the line. A prime example is the presidential election of 2012. Pollsters were generally convinced that it would be a close race. Some of the biggest and most respected polls gave Romney a slight lead over Obama. But the betting markets always thought the race to be Obama’s to lose. He was a solid favorite throughout the campaign and won fairly easily. If you want the most accurate representation of reality, look at empirical data, pay attention to the odds, and ignore opinions and conjecture.

With eight teams left, the Super Bowl odds are a little easier for me to wrap my head around. Below, I’ve put together two different models of the remaining teams’ odds both before and after last week’s games. The first table shows Vegas odds, which are essentially a function of the total amount bet on all of the teams. The second table shows odds from fivethirtyeight.com, which adopts the elo rating model that is used to rank international chess players.

Vegas Super Bowl odds before and after the wildcard games:

Before/After
Patriots: 9-2 4-1
Cardinals: 9-2 7-2
Panthers: 5-1 5-1
Seahawks: 6-1 11-2
Broncos: 6-1 11-2
Steelers: between 7-1 and 9-1 12-1
Chiefs: between 16-1 and 24-1 9-1
Bengals: between 22-1 and 25-1 Out
Packers: between 22-1 and 37-1 16-1
Vikings: between 28-1 and 40-1 Out
Washington: between 36-1 and 40-1 Out
Texans: between 66-1 and 75-1 Out

Fivethirtyeight.com Super Bowl percentages and corresponding odds before and after the wildcard games:

Before/After
Panthers: 20% 4-1 18% 9-2
Cardinals: 17% 5-1 16% 5-1
Broncos: 15% 11-2 14% 6-1
Patriots: 13% 13-2 11% 8-1
Seahawks: 9% 10-1 13% 13-2
Chiefs: 8% 12-1 14% 6-1
Bengals: 5% 19-1 Out
Steelers: 4% 24-1 8% 12-1
Packers: 3% 32-1 7% 13-1
Vikings: 3% 32-1 Out
Texans: 1% 99-1 Out
Washington: 1% 99-1 Out

Notice on the fivethirtyeight.com table how every team with a bye had their percentages go down slightly while every team that won in the wild card round had their percentages go up. Part of that is because of the way their ranking system works. Recent outcomes are more heavily weighted so the winning teams last week improved their stats while the teams on bye remained idle and thus slipped in comparison.

If you agree with fivethirtyeight.com’s assessment of each team’s chances, three teams were drastically mispriced by their Vegas odds heading into the wild card games. The best bet appeared to be the Chiefs, with 12-1 real odds vs. Vegas odds between 16-1 and 24-1. The worst bets looked like Washington and the Steelers. Washington’s chances at 99-1 were much worse than than their Vegas odds at around 40-1. Likewise, the Steelers at 24-1 were a bigger long shot than their Vegas odds of 9-1 or lower.

Washington is now out but the Chiefs and Steelers both won and are on to the quarter finals. The Chiefs’ odds have gone down, and by fivethirtyeight.com’s model, they should be favored to win this week against the Patriots. Vegas has the Patriots as five point favorites. That is the biggest discrepancy among the four games this weekend. If I were in a sports book, I’d be compelled to place a wager on the Chiefs plus five.

The Steelers’ Vegas odds went up to 12-1 from around 8-1 after winning, a rare occurrence and one that must piss off anyone who bet Pittsburgh last week. In the playoffs, it is practically a given that the winning team’s championship odds will go down after a win. But late injuries to Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown have scared off bettors. And their win last week came from the benefit of an improbable late fumble and thirty yards worth of undisciplined penalties from their opponent.

The Steelers have been one of the more divisive teams among prognosticators late in the season. Many people whose opinions I respect have been high on Pittsburgh, but entering the postseason I was not convinced. They shouldn’t have won last week against a rookie qb and they shouldn’t win this week, even if Brown and Ben are good to go. Still, none of the teams in their path are unbeatable, and more improbable runs have happened. So now I have adequately hedged myself against any success from a team I have publicly proclaimed to be a bad bet.

Many championship runs have a few weird or fluky plays that make the difference between moving on and going home. Last year Seattle had a few memorable late plays that would qualify. There was the obvious late interception in the Super Bowl that gave the game to the Patriots. But there was also the late two point conversion at home against the Packers. Last week, the fourth quarter play where Russell Wilson lost the snap but recovered, scrambled and found Lockett for a big gain was reminiscent of the play against Green Bay when Russell Wilson was about to be sacked but scrambled and found Luke Wilson to complete the two point conversion.

Seattle seems to have a flair for the dramatic, and their last three playoff games all could just as easily have been wins or losses. The Seahawks and Panthers have similar Super Bowl odds, and bettors expect this game to be close. I hope the game comes down to a last minute drive, and it looks like there is a good chance it might. But I know better than to expect a football game to be easily predictable. A few early breaks for one team or the other could allow one of these solid defences to get aggressive and help secure a runaway victory. The contrarian in me would like to find a way to wager each team at minus 9.5 at big odds and make some cash in the case of a double digit win by either side.

College Hoops

The sun still refuses to stay up past 5 PM, so I can’t golf after work for another few months. Instead there is a constant stream of college hoops on TV every night, and the closer we get to March, the more interest I will have in the games. For now, I am more of a casual observer. I keep an eye on a few of the west coast teams that I like and I’m always on the lookout for lesser known programs that could spring an upset or two in March. A few smaller programs have caught my eye and will probably get my bets in Vegas if they make it to the tournament.

First off, the Monmouth Hawks have picked up a few big victories in non-conference play. With wins over UCLA, USC, Notre Dame and Georgetown, the Hawks have shown that they can beat tournament-quality teams. They also excel at one of my favorite parts of college hoops, the bench celebration. For me, it doesn’t get much better than when kids that aren’t getting paid and hardly see the court go crazy when a teammate buries a three. Monmouth’s bench warmers are perfecting the art of this playful act of exuberance. Look up some of their choreographed celebrations on youtube if you have the time. If they don’t make you laugh, you don’t have a soul.

Another team to watch is one that I have written about before and that almost got a win against Louisville in the tourney last year. The UCI Anteaters have only lost five games and while they lack any big wins, they have my favorite player in college hoops, 7’6” Mamadou Ndiaye from Senegal. I’ve seen the man dunk while stumbling backwards. Along with 7’2” Ioannis Dimakopoulos from Greece and two other forwards at 6’10”, the Anteaters can bother smaller opponents with their imposing frontcourt. If they make the tourney and face a team that doesn’t shoot well, their size in the zone defense may be enough to get them a win.

But first, UCI has to win its conference, and standing in the Anteaters’ way are the Rainbow Warriors of Hawaii which have only dropped two games this season. Their best game may have actually been one of their losses, falling to second ranked Oklahoma by just three points. Despite the solid record, I am not as confident in Hawaii’s chances. I have noticed that in their non-conference schedule they have done pretty well in recent years. I think some of this can be chalked up to them playing a home-heavy schedule.

Travel is tough and expensive for the Rainbow Warriors and plenty of teams and coaches from the mainland want to go to Hawaii. It’s hard to imagine a group of college kids giving their best effort while on an island vacation. Hawaii is a good team, and they play tough, especially at home, but I suspect their competition is usually not playing their best.

Well, that’s it for now. I’ll leave you with my Super Bowl prediction: the winner of the Chiefs/Patriots game will make it to the Super Bowl where they will lose to the Cardinals. I’ll be back in a week or two to talk more football and get ready for the start of presidential primaries. If your team is still alive, good luck! And if your team is out, remember, you can always rent a new favorite team for one game in the form of a wager.