With just three weeks left in the NFL’s regular season, there are five teams with double digit wins all looking to secure home field advantage through the playoffs. There are also nine teams with sub .500 records that still have a shot at making the playoffs. Say what you will about the current playoff system, but the next three weeks should be thrilling and I am excited to see how it all plays out.

Place Your Bets

Last week I wrote about the Super Bowl odds for some of the top contenders and gave my impressions and betting advice. Since then, the odds have been in flux because the only constant in the NFL is change. Upon taking in last week’s games, the betting public’s opinions have shifted and we can see a few significant changes in the odds. Some of the shifts have made my previous analysis look pretty good, but I’ll start by discussing the change that made me look stupid.

The Panthers were 5-1 to win the Super Bowl and I wrote, “I’d lay off betting them to be Super Bowl champs for now. Carolina’s odds are lower than they have been all season and I think you would get better odds just betting the Panthers money-line in each playoff game and letting it ride.” My bad. After blowing out Atlanta on Sunday, Carolina is now 4-1 to win it all. With a soft schedule remaining, the 5-1 you could have gotten last week looks much more appealing. They are not my pick to be champs, but anyone with money on them from earlier in the season at higher odds has to feel pretty good, especially if you got them preseason in the 60-1 range.

I do look a little better once we review my thoughts on a few other teams. With regards to the Patriots, last week I wrote, “If I was big on the Pats, I’d slam them right now at five to one. I can’t see that line getting any bigger and I would guess that it will go down after New England beats Houston this week and eventually gets Gronkowski back.” On Sunday night, Gronkowski returned to the lineup and the Patriots beat up Houston 27-6. Their Super Bowl odds are now down to 7-2. For once, I was not wrong.

I also stated that I would bet the Seahawks at 9-1 and make a smaller bet on the Chiefs at 35-1, not because I thought they were the most likely champs but because I thought they had a better shot than their odds indicated. Seattle beat the Ravens by 29 last week and their odds are down to 6-1. The Seahawks look much better than they did at the start of the season and bettors who kept the faith after a 2-4 start are sitting on great odds for a team with an excellent chance. The Chiefs didn’t look all that great, but they beat the Chargers by a touchdown, and their odds are down to 25-1.

All in all, I mentioned four team’s odds and I recommended bets on three of the teams. All four teams saw their odds shrink after last week’s games. If you liked any of those teams, hopefully you bet on them earlier and got better odds. I whiffed on one team but I had it right on the others. I’ll take it. If I were able to guess right three out of four times consistently, I’d be a rich man.

Try Not to Shoot Yourself in the Foot

The Republican debates have been entertaining and have attracted a record number of TV viewers. You would think that all the attention combined with high ratings would be a positive for the Republican Party and whoever earns the nomination, but the addition of Trump to the race has caused the usually respectful political discourse to devolve into petty bickering and name calling. Those candidates who try to stay above the fray wind up with little speaking time and feel ignored, while those that start slinging mud get ample airtime to look childish. I’m not sure what the Republican Party’s plan is, or if they even have one, but it’s hard to see them winning the White House if things keep going the way they are. This process has not made any of the candidates look good.

I have noticed that some Republican candidates have developed a savvy strategy of questioning the media. Whenever they are faced with tough questions they can just claim it’s the liberal media trying to sabotage them. In some cases, they have a point. There is a trove of reporters trying to dig up dirt on any candidate they can, and some trivial indiscretions of youth are made to be more important than they are. But a few Republicans are using the tactic of blaming the media to avoid legitimate questions about position changes, character and other important issues. Asking questions about a candidate’s previous statements and seeking clarification on current positions is the job of a good reporter, not a seditious act of treason.

Who Else Can Win?

The Broncos, Bengals and Cardinals all sit atop their divisions with similar records. A look at the standings may lead you to believe that they have fairly similar chances but a look at their Super Bowl odds tells a much different story. Arizona is the third choice to be champs according to Vegas with odds of 5-1. The Cardinals have the highest yardage differential in the league and the second highest point differential. If coach Bruce Arians and quarterback Carson Palmer had the history of a Belichick and Brady, it’s likely the Cardinals would be Super Bowl Favorites. But most betters like to see a history of playoff success before they put down some scratch on a team to be champs.

I wrote earlier in the season about Carson Palmer and how I root for him because he went to my high school and grew up in my neighborhood. For that reason, the Cardinals are my sentimental pick to be Super Bowl champs. I don’t plan on placing any wagers on them. I just want to enjoy their games and have a team to root for like a normal person instead of focusing on point spreads or over/unders like the degenerate gambler I am at heart.

The Denver Broncos are 8-1 to win the Super Bowl. They are fourth in yardage differential but tenth in scoring differential. The numbers and the eye test show a team with a dominant defense and an inconsistent offense that has never really hit its stride. Peyton Manning was either too old or too injured to get the ball where he knew it needed to be earlier in the season. Brock Osweiler has done an adequate job filling in but it’s hard to see him leading a team to the Super Bowl. Denver has a chance if they can get a healthy Peyton back with an arm that can make throws more than 10 yards downfield. If they have to keep running out Brock or if Peyton’s arm is still weak, I can’t see the defense carrying the team to more than one playoff victory.

At 10-3, the Bengals are two games up on the Steelers in their division with three games to go. Yet the Steelers’ Super Bowl odds are 6-1 while the Bengals are 25-1. Those odds show the importance of recent play and the quarterback position in the NFL. Pittsburg has a healthy Ben Roethlisberger and has won four of its last five games. Cincinnati just lost Andy Dalton to injury and has only won two of its last five games.

The Steelers look like a solid team with decent chances, but 6-1 is too short of a price for me to take. The Bengals are limping to the finish line, but at Super Bowl odds of 25-1, you only need to be right on bets like that 5% of the time to turn a profit. If Andy Dalton can return by the playoffs, those odds will likely shrink. If I were walking through a sportsbook today, I’d likely put down $10 on Cincy just to have a shot at a decent score with little risk.

Where do You Stand?

I expect Hillary Clinton’s positions to be more flexible based on political expediency, but the ideological rock that is Bernie Sanders seems to be pulling a bit of the same move as of late. I have noticed the posts on his facebook page have become stronger in favor of gun control and more hawkish with regards to military action against the Islamic State. The posts are not overly aggressive or drastic shifts in his policy, but to me they show an evolution in his campaign. He seems more willing to shift slightly to keep his campaign relevant and competitive.

Oddsmakers put Bernie’s chances of being our next president at somewhere between 15-1 and 25-1, while Hillary’s odds are less than even money. It looks like Bernie has a tough battle but his odds have been longer. A willingness to clarify his stances in a way more palatable to a diverse population may keep his momentum going and make the Democratic race more competitive.

Our government doesn’t know what a person is.

From a constitution that counted slaves as three-fifths of a person to the Citizens United Supreme Court decision that granted First Amendment rights to corporations and unions, our government has repeatedly botched the simple question of what it is to be a person.

In the case of Reynolds v Sims in 1964, the Supreme Court ruled that when creating electoral districts, states must count people and distribute them relatively equally among districts. Recently the Supreme Court heard arguments regarding whether the term “people” includes all residents or just eligible voters. Their ruling will aid either Democrats or Republicans as people living in more densely populated areas tend to vote Democrat while rural residents tend to lean Republican. Our history of gerrymandering is far too rich of a topic to adequately cover here, but I brought up the case because I find it interesting how our government has failed for over two hundred years to define a commonly used and easily understood word.

That’s all I got for now. I will take a few weeks off for Christmas and New Year’s, but I will be back in January to write about the playoffs, the primaries and whatever else floats my boat. Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and if you celebrate any other holiday, best wishes to you and your loved ones.