The Evolution of a Gambler

In Ron Rivera’s first 34 games as head coach of the Carolina Panthers, he chose to go for it on fourth and short less than all but one other NFL coach. The man gambled so little on the field that it seemed he would likely be intimidated by my grandma’s weekly bunko game. He was not willing to risk his first head coaching job by taking chances that may make him look foolish if they were to fail. But after losing enough close games by opting to punt or kick a field goal on fourth and short when his team had a late lead, Riverboat Ron was born, and the aggressive style of play calling he adapted helped take Carolina to the playoffs for the past two seasons.

Now the Panthers are the only undefeated team in the NFL, and the man that used to pile up losses while kicking is stacking up wins by going for it. Conventional wisdom tells us that people tend to get more conservative as they age. In the NFL, the conservative approach is a good way to lose and losing is a good way to get fired. I have to respect Rivera for being willing to adapt and take chances. But then again, he was sure to be fired if he stuck to the same approach and got the same results. Self preservation can be one of the more powerful catalysts for evolution.

I think one of the fundamental reasons coaches do not go for it more on fourth down, besides not wanting to look stupid when it doesn’t work, is the antiquated notion that field position is more important than possession of the ball. Perhaps this was true before the introduction of the forward pass, but in today’s game, at every level from high-school to professional, I think possession is more important than field position.

Late in a tie game, would you rather your team be starting a drive on their own 10 yard line or defending against a team starting from their own 10? Most times the tradeoff between field position and possession is not as drastic, but even in this case, I’ll take the ball. Barring outliers like exceptionally strong defenses or weak offenses, the team with the ball is more likely to come away with the win.

The Panthers are now co-favorites with the New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl at 5-1, and their final four regular season games are against teams that currently have as many, or more losses than wins. But a perfect regular season is no gimmie, as the teams left on their schedule all still have legitimate playoff hopes. Somehow, with a few teams in each conference sucking up a majority of the wins, several teams with sub .500 records this late in the season have a shot at the playoffs. Some people bemoan the fact that teams with weak records are able to make the playoffs, but I like the entertainment that comes with so many teams being in the hunt this late in the season. And as long as horrible teams aren’t taking playoff spots while great teams miss out, the current system with its emphasis on divisional play is fine with me.

Super Bowl Odds

The Patriots have lost their last two games and are missing some key players due to injuries, but they are still co-favored to win it all. New England had been a pretty big favorite to win the Super Bowl for most of the season, but recent setbacks have doubled their odds. If I was big on the Pats, I’d slam them right now at five to one. I can’t see that line getting any bigger and I would guess that it will go down after New England beats Houston this week, and eventually gets tight end Rob Gronkowski back. On the other hand, if I was big on the Panthers, I’d lay off betting them to be Super Bowl champs for now. Carolina’s odds are lower than they have been all season and I think you would get better odds just betting the Panthers money-line in each playoff game and letting it ride. The Patriots will likely be favored in every playoff game this postseason, I’m not sure that will be the case with the Panthers.

If I were to put down some scratch on a team to win the Super Bowl this season, right now I’d put it on the Seattle Seahawks at 9-1. After a slow start, Seattle has won five of its last six games, and would be in the wildcard game if the playoffs started today. They have the toughest strength of schedule of any NFC playoff team and they are second in the league in yardage differential per game. 9-1 on a team that came within a play of winning back to back Super Bowls last season, and is finding its rhythm late in the year sounds very generous to me.

The other team I’d think about throwing a wager on is the Kansas City Chiefs at 35-1. I’m not big on their chances to win it all, but at those odds, why not put a few bucks down on a team that has won its last six games, including a sixteen point victory at Denver. Jeremy Maclin has been playing well lately, and has helped make their passing game more dynamic. Last season Alex Smith only had three completions of over forty yards. This season he already has nine. Alex is still more of a short pass quarterback, but it’s pretty clear that Maclin is a big upgrade over Dwayne Bowe, and that has helped open up the field for the offense.

The Man, the Myth, the Legend

The Detroit Lions promoted Jim Bob Cooter from quarterback coach to offensive coordinator a few weeks back and since then, Detroit has actually won a few games. Were it not for a heartbreaking Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary touchdown pass on the last play of the game last week, the Lions would have won their last four games, including twice against the Green Bay Packers. Unless you are a Lions fan, this likely means little to you personally, but it should, because Jim Bob Cooter is one of the greatest names in America. In a perfect world, he would roam the country fighting crime, helping those in need and winning county fair eating competitions. Jim Bob Cooter’s name should be spoken in the same breath as other great American legends like Johnny Appleseed and Paul Bunyan.

NCAA

The college football playoff is set and there was hardly any controversy over who is in and who is out. Most people agree that the teams in are worthy and the teams that didn’t make it weren’t good enough. The current system of a committee selecting the teams has worked well enough. Their most controversial pick was likely taking Ohio State last year over Baylor or TCU. But Ohio State ran the table in the playoffs and any doubt about the pick vanished when the Buckeyes won the national championship.

I prefer a little chaos and I can’t wait for the year when a controversial team gets in the playoff and then gets blown out in the first game. This would fuel the arguments of teams that just missed the playoffs and felt snubbed. The committee’s methods would be questioned repeatedly.

Hopefully the conversation will evolve to address the philosophical problem of whether you want the best teams or the teams with the best resumes. I’d like to see a little of both and that’s why I think Vegas should have some input into the playoffs. If odds makers think the best team is one with three losses, I still want to see them play for it all. I’d like to see Vegas power rankings determine half of the playoff field and the other half be teams with the best records according to strength of schedule and wins vs losses.

The nature of college football lends itself to controversy in the rankings. Teams only play twelve or thirteen games so strengths of schedule can vary drastically even within the same conference. It is impossible to find a playoff system that everyone will be happy with, but I would prefer something more objective than just what a certain twelve elites happen to decide.

Locals Only

Sidney Johnston Catts did not like Catholics and he did not like African Americans. He openly referred to African Americans as an inferior race and promoted a theory that monks in an Abbey near Tampa were planning to arm the black community to help take over Florida for Kaiser Wilhelm II. That would then somehow help Pope Benedict XV relocate the Vatican to San Antonio and shut down America’s Protestant churches. Unfortunately, Sidney was not spouting his nonsense from a drunk tank or an insane asylum, he was the Governor of Florida from 1917-1921.

It is easy to dismiss this man as a relic of the past, and I’d like to think that our nation has come a long way since his time, but the history of xenophobic rhetoric and actions by our government is unfortunately not just a thing of the past. Japanese internment camps, Jim Crow laws and the red scare are just a few examples of how our representatives in the US government can get things horribly wrong.

Recently Donald Trump has stated that the US should stop allowing Muslims into the US “until our country’s representatives can figure out what the hell is going on.” The wait for that would likely be infinite. As time goes on I’m sure the Donald will find more individuals or groups of people to try to keep out of the country, but so far there has been no mention of other religions or Rosie O’Donnell.

Trump’s increasingly incendiary comments should likely no longer be dignified with a response. But his words and other people’s reactions to them continue to make compelling news. What worries me is that the crowds he draws seem to be there not simply to observe this cultural oddity, but to actually offer their support. The cheers he gets after his xenophobic rants are worrisome. I refuse to believe that he has a legitimate chance to become our next president, but his continued relevancy is depressing none the less.

Some of the most brilliant men and women have devoted large portions of their lives to studying, debating and contemplating the nature of reality and our existence. If there was a singular correct way to live our lives or view the world, we should have figured it out by now or at least narrowed it down. Instead we are still all over the place, and many intelligent, well-intentioned individuals disagree vehemently about some of the most basic issues facing the human condition.

That is why I do not trust people who are convinced that anyone who disagrees with them or anyone who lives differently than them is wrong. Trump seems to me to be one of these people. I think he may legitimately believe that excluding followers of the second largest religion in the world will make America a better place. I would hope a man of his means and experience would understand that such a move towards isolationism would weaken our nation and degrade our society. Trying to stifle the free flow of people, ideas, information or goods is not the way to make our country strong, it is a path to the dark ages.

I’m about out of words for now, but there is much that I did not get to. Hopefully I’ll be back soon to discuss some of the topics that I didn’t have time for in this one. The Bengals, Broncos and Cardinals are all 10-2 and have solid teams with legitimate Super Bowl hopes. College basketball has started and Ben Simmons of LSU is putting up crazy numbers. The Golden State Warriors have not lost a game all season. Missouri students and football players protested about a lack of official response to racist incidents and got the university president to step down. Protests spread to universities across the nation with similar calls for greater staff and student body diversity. The protests fueled a growing surge of media coverage that was abruptly ended by the terrorist attacks in Paris.

With no shortage of topics to write about, I should have another column ready next week, but I make no promises. Until then, try to remember that saying, “Happy Holidays” is not an attack on Christmas. If you are Christian and someone says, “Happy Chanukah,” just say, “Thanks, you too.” If you are Jewish and someone says, “Merry Christmas,” again, say, “Thanks, you too.” Just because you celebrate a specific holiday doesn’t mean you can regard the good tidings of others as some kind of attack or insult. Be glad you live in a diverse population because life is boring when everyone is the same.