When players are out with an injury, game announcers will often say they are, “out with an ankle” or “out with a knee.” I’m pretty sure most of the players are out with two ankles and two knees; it’s just that one of them is injured and that is why they are not playing. I guess we all know they are referring to an injury, but the announcer’s job is to effectively communicate as much pertinent information as possible about the game.

Saying someone is “out with a shoulder” is lazy. If you know what the injury is, let us know. If the exact nature of the injury is unclear, at least tell us which shoulder you are referring to and that it is injured, not just that it exists. I should probably ignore it, but these people are professionals. Why aren’t their bosses telling them to say “out with a right shoulder injury” instead of just “out with a shoulder?”

We are often not as advanced a species as we think we are. I believe that much of what we call culture could be more accurately described as, “monkey see, monkey do.” The media as a whole often suffer from groupthink, where conventional wisdom is repeated and reaffirmed in excess, with little meaningful contemplation or analysis. The terms and phrases that are overused are often a symptom of our lack of independent thought. The term, “out with a knee” is common now because we all hear it frequently. I hope our verbiage evolves beyond this phrase and I am confident it will, not because we will make a conscious decision to be more accurate, but because we will all start copying some other string of words that will penetrate our dialogue.

A few years ago, I could not read or listen to any football analysis without “pay dirt” being brought up multiple times. No one just scored a touchdown; instead, they struck pay dirt. If a writer was predicting a player would rush for over a hundred yards and score a touchdown, they would not phrase it like that. They would say something like, “I see him getting 15-20 touches, going over the century mark, and reaching pay dirt.”

A few announcers, writers or commentators started the season by leaning on the term, and a month in, I could not go a day without hearing or reading the term several times. I’m not sure when the trend ended, but I’m glad it did. We are back to hearing about touchdowns more than pay dirt, but the sideline reporters now confirm that players are out with body parts while adding no additional information.

I’d like more people to think for themselves instead of regurgitating what their peers or bosses say, but that type of independent thinker is much less likely to be hired and much more likely to be fired. That is likely why the echo chamber of the media is so strong and will not disappear any time soon.

What the Hell Were They Thinking?

When the Colts took on the Patriots in week 6, everyone wanted to talk about deflategate/ballghazi and how the Patriots were out to get back at the team that called them out on their ball inflation shenanigans. It gave the analysts something to write and talk about but the narrative missed the mark. The Patriots won the deflategate game in a blowout and went on to take the Super Bowl so it’s hard to imagine the team being singularly focused on some kind of revenge against the Colts. The best revenge is living well and no team is doing as well as New England.

I think Indianapolis had the most motivation heading in. They have been improving each season since Andrew Luck arrived but they have been consistently handled by the Pats. They know that if they want to be taken seriously as contenders, they need to score a marquee victory against a top quality team. The Patriots offered that opportunity as well as a shot at revenge against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year.

Generally, I like the game that the Colts played that week. They were more aggressive and took more chances. As a result, they kept the game closer than any previous contest against the Pats and even had a lead at half. They kept up the pressure by not being afraid to go for it on fourth down and throwing in an onside kick and a fake punt. I like the style, even on the plays that didn’t work out and I hate to criticize the game plan, except for the fact that it included probably the worst play of the season, their ill-fated fake punt attempt.

To pull off a trick play, it is important that everyone is on the same page. On that fake punt, clearly not every player had the same thing in mind and that falls on the coach. I like the idea of trying a fake punt, but the execution was terrible. They lined up in an illegal formation and snapped the ball in a situation that was sure to result in a quick loss of yards. It’s good to be aggressive, take chances and try new things, but there needs to be a rhyme or reason for what you are doing. That play had none. All you can do is scratch your head at something like that.

A Fool and His Money…

One of the most talked about point spreads in College Football last weekend was the line on the Utah at USC game. USC opened as a three point favorite and the line jumped to six points by kickoff. The general public had a hard time seeing why an unranked 3-3 team that recently fired its coach was favored over an undefeated Utah team ranked third in the nation. The dumb money came in on Utah. But the big money was sure that USC was the more talented team and heavily backed the Trojans, records and coaching turmoil be damned.

On game day, a buddy and I were thinking about going golfing, but it was a little hot. Then the idea of making a day trip to Stateline to sit in a sportsbook and bet on some games was floated and it started to build some steam. I figured, why enjoy a sunny day in Southern California when I could hop in a car for three hours and go lose some money in a dingy casino? Gas is cheap, and my friend said he would drive, so off we went to Primm, Nevada to donate some cash to the lovely Buffalo Bill’s Casino.

On the way up I asked multiple friends that were USC fans what they thought about the game and the point spread. Everyone said that they wouldn’t want to bet on the Trojans winning by a touchdown or more even though they have a lot of talent. I would never think a point spread bet to be a sure thing, but an undefeated team getting six points sounded nice, especially when the USC fans I know had little faith in their team. So, I made Utah my biggest wager of the day and I was feeling good when they took a 14-7 lead in the first quarter.

But the Utes tossed two picks in the second quarter and both resulted in Trojan touchdowns. The game slipped away pretty fast and USC easily covered with an eighteen point victory. I guess I was the dumb money, but I don’t think the bet was as bad as it looks. Utah tossed four picks while the USC did not turn the ball over once, despite fumbling the ball in an area of the field where there was only one Trojan and multiple Utes.

Southern California also went for it twice on fourth and goal and got just enough yardage to score each time. I like the aggressive play calling and had I known that’s how they would play it, I would have hesitated to wager against them. I prefer to bet against coaches that kick field goals on fourth and goal from the one and send in the punter on fourth and one on their opponent’s side of the field. I’ll line up to bet against a Tom Coughlin team all the livelong day, but talented teams with aggressive play callers, not so much.

While I was waiting for a seat at the sportsbook, I put $20 into a slot machine and cashed out $21 when a table opened up. That was the only winning venture of the trip. My other two football bets lost and the craps table waited until all my money was out on come bets with big odds until a seven came up and pretty much cleaned me out. While I would never give it up, the $10 win they handed me on the last come bet as they swipe away the rest of my chips is almost an insult. I took the $10 to a roulette table and lost it when the ball refused to land on black 17. Good trip. I’m glad I didn’t save a few hundred bucks and hours on the road by doing something stupid like playing a leisurely round of golf.

House Party

A few weeks back, John Boehner announced he would be stepping down as Speaker of the House and for a while no one seemed to want to succeed him in being next in line behind Joe Biden to be President of the United States of America. As partisan as our politics are now, there are equally large divisions within the Republican Party, and the next speaker will have to deal with the unruly Freedom Caucus which consists of many new representatives who would prefer to shut down the government than bend on their conservative principles.

The early favorite to be the next Speaker was California representative and House majority leader Kevin McCarthy. He dropped out of the running just before a vote that was supposed to make him Speaker and with no major support for the other candidates, Boehner pushed back the vote.

It is generally considered that McCarthy dropped out because he lacked support from the Freedom Caucus and didn’t want to deal with the divisions. There were also a few cryptic tweets at the time that referred to a reason for his withdrawal that everyone knew, but no one was talking about. Apparently there are rumors of an affair between McCarthy and North Carolina representative Renee Ellmers, which some feel is the real reason he pulled out. He has denied the allegations but some feel he was pressured into withdrawing by conservatives that threatened to expose him. As far as I know, nothing of substance has come out to prove the affair, but either way the Republicans were back to square one.

Now, Paul Ryan looks to be voted in as Speaker soon after he reluctantly accepted the job with a few conditions. He didn’t want the job and he does not want to deal with all of the fund raising and extra commitments that come with it. He has stated he will place family time ahead such extra activities. He does not seem to want to deal with budget haggling and the ideological wars that Boehner has been in the middle of, but neither does anyone else. The House needs a speaker and there is no other realistic candidate at the moment, so it looks like Ryan will take the job and the house will approve him. Good luck with that. The House is huge and gerrymandering has made many spots so safe for the Republican Party that representatives risk losing their job if they ever compromise. I wouldn’t want to have to deal with that either.

Bottom Heavy

With seven weeks of the NFL season completed, 18 of the 32 teams have a sub .500 record and another 3 teams are right at .500. This leaves only 11 teams with more wins than losses, and five of those teams are undefeated. That gives us a fairly big separation between the haves and the have-nots in a short period of time. If your team has a sub .500 record, you better hope they happen to play in the AFC South of the NFC East, otherwise they have a big hill to climb to make the playoffs.

Except for maybe Seattle. They are 3-4 but only two games back of Arizona for the lead in the NFC West. Despite the losing record they have outscored their opponents by 26 on the season. Only two other teams with a sub .500 record have outscored their opponents on the year: 3-4 Buffalo has a plus 3 point differential and the 3-4 Eagles have a plus 23 point differential. Of those three teams, Seattle is the only one to also have a positive yards-per-game differential. The Seahawks are actually fourth in the league in that category, out gaining their opponents by over 63 yards a game.

It is my understanding that yardage differentials are better indicators of future success than a team’s record. The results of close games can often come down to the bounce of a ball. Turnovers play a big role in a game’s outcome and turnovers are one of the least predictable events in football. A look at the numbers beyond their records tells me that Seattle is the most likely sub .500 team to turn things around and make the playoffs. Of course, the Seahawks made it to the Super Bowl the last two years so you probably don’t need my unsophisticated analysis to tell you that they are likely better than their record indicates.

Minimum Wage

Income inequality and the fight for fifteen movement continue to play an important role in economic and political discourse as well as the race for President. I agree that every adult who works a full-time job deserves a living wage. However, I do not believe that every employer should be solely responsible for that wage. An incremental raise of the minimum wage along with an expansion of the earned income credit (a government subsidy for low income workers) is the best way to raise standards of living while not passing all the costs onto low-margin employers and thus, consumers. Some services are necessary but would be hard to sustain with higher wages.

In high school and college, I worked summers as a day camp counselor. It was a fun job but it didn’t pay much. The lower pay wasn’t because of a greedy employer; I worked for a non-profit organization. We got paid just above minimum wage because that was how they could keep the cost down for families that needed to use our camp as a day care. Any substantial raise in pay to the counselors would directly result in a raise in the cost of a week of camp. Most of the counselors were young, in school and had a low cost of living. We all aspired to have higher paying jobs in the future and did not expect that job to support us as adults with families.

Hopefully everyone has a similar starting job and is able to find more lucrative employment later on in life. But I understand that not everyone is able to find better work, and as we age our cost of living goes up. Those people who stayed gainfully employed as adults deserve to earn a living wage, even if they work in low-margin industries. That’s why I support an expansion of the earned income tax credit that would be added to such workers’ paychecks so they have a living wage without the cost falling disproportionately on lower income consumers.

I like the idea of raising the minimum wage to $15, but gradually over the next ten to fifteen years. In the meantime, we can use the earned income tax credit to ensure that every independent adult that works full-time earns the equivalent of that wage, with additional compensation for dependents. That way the costs would fall to all taxpayers. Otherwise, the costs of a drastic increase in minimum wage would be passed on from employers to consumers, and lower income consumers would bear the greatest share of this burden.

With a progressive tax system, like we have, a greater share of the burden of raising wages goes to wealthier individuals if we use the earned income tax credit. A simple raise of the minimum wage sounds like the most compassionate way to raise standards of living, but the economic reality is that it would use more money from lower income individuals to boost the income of others, whereas the earned income tax credit uses more money from higher income individuals to do the same.

You Mess With the Bull, You Get the Horns

On another tangent, I’ve noticed a lot of commercials for online stock brokers lately that make it seem like average Joes are making cash by day trading during their morning commute. Or soccer moms are stumbling upon brilliant investment ideas at Costco. This is a sure sign that markets are up and there is less money to be made. I prefer to invest when the finance commercials show older couples nearing retirement standing around their kitchen fretting about what to do with their shrinking 401k. That is a sign that markets are down and there is more money to be made.

I invest for the long term and generally don’t bother with timing the market. I invest a little every month regardless of market conditions. But if I was going to actively try to buy low and sell high, I think financial service commercials would act as a good contrarian indicator.
Guatemala

In the recent presidential runoff election in Guatemala, comedian Jimmy Morales won in a landslide, despite having no political experience. He was polling at less than one percent just half a year ago, but became a player in the race after the former president and his closest competition both were plagued with corruption scandals. It seems as though the people lack any confidence in their government officials and found the outsider to be more palatable anyone in the system.

Morales’s campaign was light on specifics, but generally aimed at fighting corruption. One of his more intriguing campaign ideas was to tag public teachers with GPS devices to make sure they show up for work. I am not sure how docile Guatemala’s teacher population is, but tagging them all would seem to be a logistical and humanitarian nightmare. It will be interesting to see how he leads, for now the people feel he can’t do any worse than his predecessors.

Grand Slam?

This Saturday will be the last race for Triple Crown champion American Pharoah before he goes on to the live the dream as he is put out to stud. He will compete in America’s richest race, the Breeder’s Cup Classic. The race is the same distance as the Kentucky Derby, but is open to all horses, not just three year olds. The race was first run in 1982, and there has been talk of a horse winning the Triple Crown and then taking the Classic, making it a grand slam. But no horse has won the Triple Crown since the Classic started, so American Pharoah will be the first horse with a chance to take all four races. He is the 6-5 morning line favorite, and looks to many to be the horse to beat.

I like American Pharoah, but I won’t be betting on him in this race. Instead my money will be on the 3-1 second choice on the morning line, Beholder. She is the only female horse in the race and she hasn’t lost all year. She is looking to become the first horse to win three different Breeder’s Cup races and I think she has what it takes to put it on the boys this Saturday. She has beaten older male horses in a grade one race at the same distance as the Classic, even the Triple Crown winner can’t say that.

Keen Ice, who beat American Pharoah in his last race also has a shot to take the Classic. He has been steadily improving and this race will show whether his last win was an aberration, or if he’s matured enough to take on the heavy hitters.

The other horse I am interested to see is Gleneagles, an Irish horse that will be making his American debut after winning some of Europe’s biggest races. Usually the European horses run better on the grass, so he would have to be something special to win on an unfamiliar surface after a long trip. But his trainer has won Breeder’s Cup races before and he obviously believes in the horse so I’m not counting him out.

Those are the four horses with the best shot to win it. I will likely play some exactas and trifectas with all of them but Beholder is my pick to win. She ran probably the best race of the year in the US over the summer at Del Mar with little urging from the jockey. If she can repeat what she did that day, she will be long gone.

Well that’s it for now. Next time I’ll let you know how much money I lost on the race. Until then, enjoy your Halloween, and don’t be the house that gives trick-or-treaters mini toothbrushes or dental floss.