In the men’s bathroom at my work there are three urinals. This week, whoever is in charge of the facilities switched up the plastic pads in the urinals to ones that are designed to absorb, not deflect the stream of urine. They work great when they are used properly but the dude that cleans the bathroom is more likely to put them in backwards which does not absorb the flow of pee, instead it aggressively spits your urine right back at you. This leads to a delicate dance of trying to find the right spot of the urinal to hit so you don’t spray pee on yourself while taking baby steps backwards because the splash back is getting ominously close. The result is a bathroom floor even more urine soaked than normal. I’d like to relate this anecdote to something more relevant, perhaps by talking about other times when the tools are there but the right processes aren’t in place and poor execution leads to uninspiring results. But I really just felt like venting and these articles have to start somewhere. On to the football talk.

The defending champs put a hurting on the lowly Jaguars to move to 3-0 on the season. Tom Brady is off to a hot start, throwing nine touchdowns and no interceptions. Just a year ago, after a slow start, many felt Brady was obviously on the decline and one reporter seriously asked Belichick if he would consider making a change at the QB position. The notion is laughable now but it shows how quickly perceptions can change and how easy it is to overreact to a small sample size.

You would think that the undefeated, defending Super Bowl champions would be a big favorite to win it again, but Vegas has them listed as the second choice behind another undefeated team with a quarterback that the media can’t stop gushing over. Aaron Rodgers has thrown ten touchdowns and no picks this season and the undefeated Packers are the 5-2 favorites to win the Super Bowl. So far they have shown no lingering effects from blowing a late lead in Seattle and just missing the Super Bowl last season. Even without Jordy Nelson, Rodgers and the Packers look tough. If they can get home field advantage throughout the playoffs, I’d be surprised if they don’t make it to the Super Bowl this season.

After coming within a yard of winning their second straight Super Bowl, the Seahawks started the season with two losses. Thankfully they finally had a home game last week against a Bears team without Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery. No one expected the Bears to win, including the Bears apparently because the coaching staff implemented a timid game plan that resulted in a punt on every possession and zero points on the scoreboard. Chicago played for the most respectable loss instead of for the win. This was never more obvious than late in the third quarter when the Bears punted on fourth and one at midfield down 20. Punting in that situation makes winning harder but it does make it a little easier to lose by a less embarrassing score. A loss is a loss, regardless of the score, so why not sack up and give yourself a better chance to win?

Right now, Vegas is willing to look past the fact that the Seattle has a losing record and no quality wins, as they are still the third choice to win the Super Bowl with odds of 7-1. The next two betting choices at 10-1 are the undefeated Broncos and Cardinals.

Peyton Manning sure catches a lot of flak for leading his team to three straight wins to start the season. The offense has not looked as explosive as it was in years past and the overall numbers are down. But the Bronco’s defense is strong and Peyton has been making up for his lack of arm strength with experience and a high football IQ. I don’t think they have looked great this year but you have to give a team credit for winning games while the offense is not firing on all cylinders.

The Cardinals got Carson Palmer back to start the season and picked up right where they left off before his injury last year. They have not lost with him as their starter over the last two seasons. I always root for Palmer because he went to the same high school as I did and we grew up in the same neighborhood. He was two grades ahead of me so we weren’t buddies, but even before he was the captain of the high school football team he stood out. I remember when I was in sixth grade and he was in eighth, he towered over everyone at our middle school and was one of two kids that could grow a full beard. He was a man among boys.

I also remember in sixth grade playing pogs after school and Carson’s little brother Jordan was one of the kids hanging out. I realized some of my slammers were missing and started asking the other kids about it, no one knew anything but Jordan was suspiciously gone. After I established that no one around had my slammers, Jordan came walking up to the group and I confronted him about it. He mumbled something about not knowing they were mine, then walked home, retrieved my property and returned it to me. Since that time, Jordan Palmer has played college football and been a backup QB in the NFL. There is no doubt that he is bigger and stronger than me, but in my mind he will always be the little punk who stole my slammers and I feel like I can take him.

Carolina, Atlanta and Cincinnati are the only other undefeated teams three weeks into the season. I don’t give Carolina or Atlanta much of a shot to win the Super Bowl, but they are in the same weak division so a playoff berth isn’t out of the question, and in the postseason anything can happen. Cincinnati has lots of talent but has yet to make the push necessary to go deep in the playoffs. Maybe this is the year they break through, but I still see them as a team good enough to win their share of regular season games, but not up to the task of beating elite teams when it matters most.

Andrew Luck was a preseason favorite to win the MVP, but after struggling early and starting 1-2, the media has begun a mass exodus from his bandwagon. He certainly is not looking like the MVP, but I am inclined to chalk up the disappointing start to a few bad games and a small sample size. I have a feeling he will string together a few wins where he will throw for over 400 yards and multiple touchdowns, then the media will get back in his corner and reference their preseason predictions for him while ignoring their week two articles about what a disappointment he is.

Overlays

If you watch football then you have no doubt been inundated by commercials for daily fantasy sports. I have dabbled in a few of these and they can be fun, but with the house take and the many professionals entering hundreds of line ups, the odds are stacked against the casual player. However, there is competition among the daily fantasy sites and some continue to offer events with prize pools that don’t get enough entrants to cover the guarantee. This offers the gambling public a rare opportunity, the ability to place bets with a positive expected return on investment.

The big daily fantasy sites offer guaranteed prize pools and payouts that are the same regardless of how many people enter. For instance, a game with a $10 entry and a $100 prize pool would need 10 entrants to cover the winnings. The sites will allow 12 people to enter and if it fills up they will pocket the extra $20. But if only 8 people enter, the site has to kick in the extra $20 to pay out the winners. Typically, if an event fails to draw enough entries to cover the payouts, it will be discontinued because it is not profitable. But in the competitive marketplace of daily fantasy sports, companies are willing to take a hit from unfilled contests to promote their site and hopefully gain market share.

Yahoo’s daily fantasy site has a weekly football contest with a guaranteed $1 million dollar prize pool. The cost is $10 per entry so it needs 100,000 entrants to cover the payouts. In the first three weeks of the season it has never gotten more than 80,000 entrants. That means Yahoo has put in over $200,000 to the prize pool each week and the average $10 entry has paid back over $12.50. This is an anomaly in the gambling world and it cannot continue indefinitely, but right now there is a unique opportunity to play fantasy games where the average player gets back more than he puts in. Savvy gamblers should be hammering the events with overlays because they know it is rare to find a game where the house loses.

Natty Trash it in-a Zimbabwe

The 91 year old walking skeleton and leader of Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, gave a state of the nation address last week. He read the speech, all twenty-five minutes of it, without realizing it was the exact same speech he gave a month earlier. The old speech was mistakenly given to him to read, and the man who is unfit to rule did not realize the mistake. Parliament had to sit through the exercise in futility and then was later called into a special session to hear the correct speech after Mugabe realized his mistake.

Robert Mugabe has been in power in Zimbabwe since 1980 and his actions have enriched him and his friends at the expense of the people. In 2008, a wave of change almost crested, but Mugabe’s oppression pushed back and the tides of progress were stemmed and disappeared into the sea. In elections that were freer than Mugabe would have liked, the opposition People’s Movement for Democratic Change took in a large percentage of the votes and its presidential candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, clearly had the most votes. Mugabe’s party claimed that Tsvangirai did not gain a majority of the votes and so he would have to face Mugabe in a runoff election. This was disputed and later it slipped that the opposition actually took in over 70% of the vote, but the ruling party, under Mugabe, insisted on the runoff.

In the run-up to the next round of elections, harassment, abuse and intimidation were used in excess until Tsvangirai dropped out of the race. He called the runoff a violent sham and quit because he feared for the lives of his supporters.

The farce in Zimbabwe continues today and it would be nice if the repeated speech was the worst of it, but that was mild in comparison to Mugabe’s birthday party earlier in the year. The over the top extravaganza was partially paid for by public school teachers who were forced to donate money to fund the event. Robert Mugabe has taken everything he can from Zimbabwe and now he needs to take from civil servants to keep funding his lifestyle. Stay classy.

Place Your Bets

Among other things, I am interested in politics, economics and gambling. The US presidential election offers a fascinating look at the intersection of the three. The debates, interviews and policy positions are great to follow, while the betting odds are much less discussed but just as relevant.

The uninitiated bettor generally assumes that the odds are simply set by Sportsbooks and Bookies based on their opinions. While that is part of how odds are set, it is an oversimplification of the process. Point spreads are theoretically set so that money is wagered equally on both sides with the house making its money by having you bet $55 to win $50 and paying the winners with the losers while pocketing the extra cash. When a line opens and most of the money comes in on one side, sportsbooks will move the line to try to entice bettors to take the other side and even things out. This means that the biggest factor in where the odds wind up is the money wagered. In stocks and in gambling, the market sets the price. And in gambling, like in stocks, there are bubbles and anomalies in the short run, but the larger and longer the sample size, the more rational the market is.

The US presidential election is a long contest, with huge amounts of money wagered in the form of donations, campaigning, advertising and betting markets. As more time is invested, more information becomes available and more money is wagered, the betting markets should give a pretty good picture of all the candidates’ chances. We have over a year until the general election so take it as you like it, but I will end this week’s ramblings with a look at the 2016 presidential election odds.

Hillary Clinton – 7-5 favorite. Most odds are over even money but less than 3-2

Jeb Bush – 5-1 second choice. Some books have odds as low as 9-2

Joe Biden – 8-1 making a move. He still hasn’t said if he will run, but it is a light field of Democrats with only one establishment candidate that happens to be scandal prone. If Hillary slips, bettors think Biden has the best shot at the nomination. Some books have him as low as 5-1.

Marco Rubio – 8-1 is expected to gain from Walker dropping out

Trump – 8-1 with odds as high as 11-1 and as low as 9-2 his odds vary more from book to book than any other candidate

Bernie Sanders – 12-1 steadily improving for a while and the latest fundraising reports show he almost pulled in as much cash as Hillary. The big difference is that Hillary’s money is mostly from big donors and Bernie’s money is mostly from smaller, individual donations.

Carly Fiorina – 20-1 an impressive move from outside the top 10 Republican candidates to relevancy by way of her debate performances. Some books have her as low as 12-1

Ben Carson – 30-1

John Kasich – 35-1

Ted Cruz – 50-1

Rand Paul – 80-1

That’s all for now. Until next time, take care of yourselves, and each other.