This Saturday, American Pharoah takes a shot at history. If he can beat seven opponents in a mile and a half race over the Belmont track, he will be the first horse to sweep the Triple Crown series since Affirmed in 1978. At the time of Affirmed’s win, some thought that the feat was becoming too easy, but a long drought with a few near misses has made it frustratingly elusive. When Affirmed swept the series, it was the second year in a row that a horse won the Triple Crown and the third time in six years. When Spectacular Bid arrived at Belmont the next year with a shot at the Triple Crown, it was natural to think the challenge was becoming less daunting. But Spectacular Bid finished third and became the first of twelve horses since Affirmed that came to the Belmont Stakes with a chance to win the Triple Crown only to fall short. American Pharoah’s connections and most of the fans in attendance on Saturday will be hoping that the thirteenth time’s the charm.

Most handicappers would say that American Pharoah is the best horse in the race and judging by the past performances it is hard to pick against him. However, it will come down to who runs the best race on Saturday, not who has the best resume. Recent history gives sceptics ample reasons to believe that the best horse won’t necessarily win the Belmont Stakes. There are endless factors to consider when analyzing a race, but four stand out that make the Belmont Stakes a unique challenge.

First is the distance. The Belmont Stakes is run at a mile and half. It is the longest Triple Crown race and one of only a handful of stakes races run on dirt at that distance. No horse in the Belmont this year has run farther than a mile and a quarter. We can guess about how they will handle the extra distance by observing how they finished their shorter races, but I have often found this to be a fool’s errand. Taking a shorter race and imagining similar conditions for a longer race will generally put you on a losing horse. The pace and dynamics of longer races generally make for much different finishes than if the same horses ran a shorter distance. The longer a horse runs, the weaker his closing kick is. A horse finishing strong in a short race won’t necessarily finish strong in a longer race. So the fact that no one in this race has finished within three lengths of American Pharoah in their previous races does not mean one of them can’t turn the tables on Saturday.

It is not just the length of the race that trips up horses, many fail to run their best because the course is different than any other major track in America. The Belmont track is a mile and a half around, every other track American Pharoah has raced on is a mile. This means that when the horse hits the home stretch, he will be as far away from the finish line as if he was still making the turn at other tracks. Horses or jockeys that are unfamiliar with the layout often make their move too early and cannot sustain their run to the finish line. Of course, it might be just the distance that causes the horse to fade, but if American Pharoah has the lead on the home stretch and then gets passed, many will question jockey Victor Espinoza’s tactics in the race.

The third major roadblock to the Triple Crown is the surface. Known as Big Sandy, the Belmont track is considered the deepest surface among major tracks in America. With more give under their hooves, horses have to work harder to get over the surface. The last few tracks that American Pharoah ran on had similar feels; the track he will race over on Saturday will be different. There is no indication that American Pharoah will struggle with the surface, but Belmont is a track where many handicappers play the horse for course angle, and other horses in the race have experience at Belmont including one with a win in stakes company, American Pharoah does not.

The final factor working against American Pharoah is rest. Three weeks to rest before the Belmont is enough time, but his last race was on two weeks rest and most trainers like to give their best horses a little more time off between big races. Only one other horse in the race will run on less than four weeks rest and no other horse in the field has run twice in two weeks this year. If you think a few weeks rest after running a mile and a quarter race is a ton of time to rest, you are thinking about humans, not horses. I know I could run a mile and a quarter and probably only need five or six days on the couch to get back to full strength. But horses weigh over a thousand pounds and run faster than thirty miles an hour. It takes a lot of energy to move a thousand pounds at those speeds. American Pharoah seems to be doing well, but it is rare for a horse to run his best race at the end of a long campaign like he has had.

Most likely, all of these ways that the deck is stacked against American Pharoah are over emphasized because of the length of the Triple Crown drought. Four of the previous twelve horses to fall short finished second. A nose here or a length there could have brought a few Triple Crown winners in my lifetime and made the feat seem less imposing. In 1998, Real Quiet made the lead on the home stretch of the Belmont with a chance to win the Triple Crown for trainer Bob Baffert. He looked to have no real competition and crowd was going nuts. But then Victory Gallop started to close. Real Quiet was still in front by a few lengths but the finish line was not coming as fast as his opponent. In the final strides Victory Gallop ran by Real Quiet right as they hit the wire and no one was sure who the winner was. Usually jockeys know who got there first but neither seemed to have a clue this time. Victory Gallop was closing so fast at the wire it was going to be a matter of inches. After a painfully long wait for the photo finish, the crowd was deflated. By four inches, the smallest margin of defeat in the history of the race, Victory Gallop stole the Belmont and spoiled the Triple Crown. I’ve probably watched that race on YouTube over fifty times and every time the finish is just as compelling. You can feel the excitement, the emotion, the confusion and the disappointment.

Bob Baffert gets another chance on Saturday to shake off earlier close calls. All he needs to do is the one thing he is known for. The silver haired assassin has made a living by shipping horses in few days before a big race, taking the winner’s share and then getting out of town. American Pharoah just arrived at Belmont a few days ago and the plan is to send him home to the west coast as a Triple Crown champion a few days after the race. Only seven horses stand in his way and he has previously beaten all of them. But most of them fit the profile of recent Belmont Stakes winners so I wouldn’t count them out.
Five of the horses in the Belmont ran in the Kentucky Derby and then skipped the Preakness. Several recent Belmont winners followed that same pattern. Another opponent, Madefromlucky, just won the local prep race on the Belmont track, following the pattern of last year’s Belmont Stakes winner. There’s an angle to find that gives most horse’s in the race a chance to win, but the one I think has the best shot at the upset is Frosted. Frosted was only beaten by three and quarter lengths in the Kentucky Derby and did not look tired coming down the stretch. The extra rest and the extra distance may be all he needs to come out on top. American Pharoah has beaten every other horse in the race by seven lengths or more. The other horses need to improve and have American Pharoah regress to win.

Here’s how I envision the race, and usually I’m way off when I try to do this so feel free to ignore my analysis, but I think American Pharoah runs near the front of the pack and makes the lead on the home stretch and I think his only competition will be Frosted who will pass tired horses heading for home. Will the long home stretch wear down American Pharoah or will he pass the test of a champion? I have no idea but I will be rooting for him and I can’t wait to find out. I won’t bet much on the race, but I will have to put something down because I love to bet on big events and I also believe that it is important to make at least one wager a day, otherwise I could be walking around lucky and not know it.