It’s on to the AFC West and the last of the divisional previews for the upcoming draft. After sending three teams to the 2013 NFL playoffs, and the Denver Broncos reaching the Super Bowl, the West only saw those same Broncos make it to the postseason while the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers were eliminated on the last day of the regular season. All three of those teams are looking to bounce back into the playoffs in 2015; the Broncos are in “Super Bowl or bust” mode with quarterback Peyton Manning nearing the end of his career. Meanwhile the Oakland Raiders broke in a rookie quarterback in Derek Carr in 2014 and hope to make some more noise in the division this upcoming year with an improved offense and aggressive defense. Questions loom over the San Diego quarterback situation; perennial Pro Bowler Philip Rivers has been the subject of trade rumors, linking him to the Tennessee Titans and former offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt. With three teams looking to make the playoffs and another hoping to make some noise in the division, it should be a fun 2015 in the West.

Some information on the stats being used, specifically DYAR, DVOA and EY. DYAR refers to Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, or the value of a quarterback’s performance compared to a replacement level player and adjusted for situation and the defense. DVOA is Defense-adjusted Value Over Average or the value, per play, over an average QB in the same game situations. And finally EY is Effective Yards, or when compared to their actual yards, if the QB’s EY is higher than their actual yards, then said QB played better than standard stats would normally indicate. The inverse is true if the players EY is lower than their actual yards.

AFC West
Denver Broncos

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: 28th and 59th

Projected starting QB: Peyton Manning, age 39 (3rd in DYAR, 5th in DVOA, 4,589 yards, 5,166 EY, 39 TD’s, 15 ints)

The problem for a quarterback as accomplished as Peyton Manning is when you throw for 5,300 yards and 55 touchdowns, as he did in 2013, seasons like his most recent are disappointing with only 4,600 yards and 39 touchdowns. Manning started out hot, as he did the previous year, but a thigh injury late in the season appeared to seriously limit his game; after week 11 against the Ram,s Manning failed to throw for more than 260 yards in 5 of the next 6 games, and he didn’t reach 200 yards in two of those games. The home playoff loss in the divisional round to his former club, the Indianapolis Colts, brought another poor performance: 26-46 for 211 yards and just one touchdown. Clearly, something was amiss with the future hall of famer and there was talk 2014 would be his last season and that Manning was looking at retirement. Manning committed to at least one more season with the Broncos and while 2014 wasn’t his best year, a healthy Manning is still a force to be reckoned with. He still finished in the top 5 in DVOA and top 3 in DYAR, and only Andrew Luck finished with more touchdown passes. As Manning nears the age of 40, this next season is most likely his last chance at a second Super Bowl title and the Broncos will be looking to send him out with a bang.

Keeping Manning healthy and upright is of the utmost importance for the Broncos and last year injuries decimated their offensive line and caused some players to move to spots they were not comfortable with. Gone is tackle Orlando Franklin to the San Diego Chargers; this is the position the Broncos need to target in the first round at #28. New head coach Gary Kubiak runs a zone blocking scheme, which requires quick feet and movement. Tackle TJ Clemmings from Pitt fits that description nicely; some think he could be the best tackle in the draft, but a late diagnosis of a foot injury has dropped him down some boards. They could also go with center Cam Erving from FSU, but the idea of a rookie center playing with Manning, who changes plays multiple times before the ball is snapped, seems like a bad idea.

Kansas City Chiefs

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: 18th and 49th

Projected starting QB: Alex Smith, Age 30 (14th in DYAR, 19th in DVOA, 3,039 yds, 3,285 EY, 19 TD’s, 6 Ints)

In 2014 Alex Smith was what he has been his entire career in the NFL: better than replacement level, unspectacular, at times capable of displaying playoff caliber ability, other times a guy who you can’t wait to replace. Consider, the year he was replaced by Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco he was 9th in DVOA with a 70% completion percentage through 10 games. He was playing well, but the Niners were constantly left wanting more. The other interesting thing about Smith is his performance in the playoffs; in three playoff games he’s thrown for 873 yards with 9 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Those are numbers Andy Dalton would kill for. Smith did sign a 4 year extension at the start of last season worth 68 million, but only 18 of which is guaranteed and came in the form of his signing bonus; essentially he can be cut at any time with only an 8 million dollar cap hit for the Chiefs. It’s the kind of contract someone like Smith would get; he’s good enough to keep around because good quarterbacks are hard to find, and he is capable enough to keep KC competitive, but he’s for all intents and purposes holding the spot for the franchise guy the team wants.

Alex Smith threw one touchdown pass to a wide receiver last year, Dwayne Bowe, and he’s no longer on the team, so a little help at wideout would be nice. They did sign Jeremy Maclin from the Eagles in the offseason; they have started the upgrade at that spot already. They already have one of the best running games in the NFL, 5th by DVOA, with Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis at running back, the passing game was clearly the weak link. They should have several good options at #18 for the receiver position—Nelson Agholor (USC), Breshad Perriman (UCF), Jaelen Strong (ASU) and Dorial Green-Beckham (Missouri)—all guys with good size and speed to compliment Maclin. If defensive tackles Danny Shelton (Washington) or Malcom Brown (Texas) were to fall to them, they would have to give them serious consideration, as they were only 26th against the run defensively last year.

Oakland Raiders

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: 4th and 35th

Projected starting QB: Derek Carr age 24 (37th in DYAR, 34th in DVOA, 3,071 yards, 2,969 EY, 21 TD’s, 12 ints)

By the advanced stats, Carr was the best rookie at the quarterback position last year, slightly ahead of Minnesota QB Teddy Bridgewater. It was not phenomenal by any means, by comparison Robert Griffin and Andrew Luck had much better rookie seasons, as did Russell Wilson. Still, he showed enough promise that the Raiders should feel good about selecting him in the second round of last year’s draft and look forward to building a team around him in the years to come. I’m not sure he is the type of quarterback who can elevate the play of those around him and turn lemons into lemonade, though not many are; he will have to have a solid team built around him to take full advantage of his physical skills. The Raiders, drafting 4th and 35th, should be in a position to do just that.

While the Raiders signed receiver Michael Crabtree from the 49ers in the offseason, they need to truly find out what they have in Carr and to do that they need to get some elite talent at the receiver position and no disrespect to Crabtree, James Jones and Andre Holmes, but they are not elite. Luckily, there are a couple of receivers that will most likely be available to them at #4: Amari Cooper from Alabama and Kevin White from West Virginia. For me, the pick has to be Cooper; he played in a pro-style offense at Alabama, therefore he’ll be comfortable stepping into a pro system. He also had phenomenal production in the hyper competitive SEC West—over 1,700 yards and 16 touchdowns. He’s 6’1, ran a 4.42 at the combine and is a silky smooth route runner. At #35 in the second round, I like for them to get help in the secondary. Corners Byron Jones (UConn), PJ Williams (FSU), and Kevin Johnson (Wake Forest) all have a chance to be there early in the second round.

San Diego Chargers

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: 17th and 48th

Projected starting QB: Philip Rivers, age 33 (9th in DYAR, 10th in DVOA, 4,086 yds, 4,365 EY, 31 TDs, 16 Ints)

The rumor mill has been churning full force in regards to Rivers and the Chargers. He’s been the face of their franchise since 2006 after the Chargers chose not to retain Drew Brees and he has not disappointed them. He’s been at or near the top 10 in DVOA and DYAR for most of his career with the Charger,s with a slight hiccup in 2012 when he fell to 22nd and a flash of greatness the next season when he vaulted up to 3rd. However, the Chargers have made tough decisions about their franchise quarterbacks before when they got up there in age, and Rivers is due a contract extension that he says he will not negotiate at this time. There are fears in the organization that he has no interest in moving his family to Los Angeles, where it is also rumored the Chargers will end up in 2016, and that Rivers would sooner retire if that came to fruition. It puts the Chargers in a tough position; they know Rivers is their best bet at quarterback in 2015. He’s still playing at an extremely high level and figures to have at least 2-3 years left of really quality play. Yet, if he is looking to move on if the team makes a move, the Chargers may be in position to transition right into another franchise quarterback, trading Rivers to the Titans for the #2 pick and quarterback Marcus Mariota from Oregon. As of this writing, it looks like the Chargers are going to keep Rivers, which of course could be posturing, such is the way things are two days before the draft.

Assuming the Chargers keep Rivers, they have needs at a few positions going into 2015. They could use another receiver to compliment Keenan Allen; in our site mock draft I have them taking DeVante Parker out of Louisville at #17. He’s essentially Keenan Allen if Allen ran a 4.45 in the 40. They’ve also been linked to running backs Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon; they lost running back Ryan Mathews to the Philadelphia Eagles during free agency. My preference is for Gordon simply because he can come in and be the guy right away, whereas Gurley might need to be eased into playing time coming off of his ACL injury. Should the Chargers look to help the defense, outside linebacker and pass rush is a priority for them. If Vic Beasely (Clemson), Shane Ray (Missouri), or Randy Gregory (Nebraska) fall to them, they will be given long consideration as rushers off the edge. Look out for defensive tackles Malcom Brown (Texas) and Eddie Goldman (FSU), they would fit in nicely as one techniques in the Chargers 3-4 defense.