Not the best 2014 for the AFC South, only the Indianapolis Colts were a playoff team, and they were waxed in the AFC championship game by the New England Patriots, best known as the “Deflategate” game. Their collective team efficiency ratings came in at Colts 13th, Houston Texans 19th, Tennessee Titans 31st, and the Jacksonville Jaguars 32nd. The Colts will expect to add another division title to their resume due to one Andrew Luck, who they employ at the quarterback position; he figures to be a top 5 quarterback for the next 10 or so years. Fortunately for the Jags and Titans, futility brings high draft picks, with the Titans especially having an opportunity to infuse some talent at the quarterback position in either Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston. As the saying goes “Rome wasn’t built in a day”, but one selection can change the trajectory of a franchise in an instant. The Titans and Jaguars are hoping lightening strikes twice with the second and third picks in this year’s draft.

Some information on the stats being used, specifically DYAR, DVOA and EY. DYAR refers to Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, or the value of a quarterback’s performance compared to a replacement level player and adjusted for situation and the defense. DVOA is Defense-adjusted Value Over Average or the value, per play, over an average QB in the same game situations. And finally EY is Effective Yards, or when compared to their actual yards, if the QB’s EY is higher than their actual yards, then said QB played better than standard stats would normally indicate. The inverse is true if the players EY is lower than their actual yards.

AFC South

Houston Texans

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: 16th and 51st

Projected starting QB: Brian Hoyer, age 29 (25th in DYAR, 26th in DVOA, 3,170 yards, 2,513 EY, 12 TD’s, 12 ints)

Rotoworld lists Hoyer as #1 on the depth chart over Ryan Mallett, as such that’s whom I’ll be using in my analysis, although that would be somewhat of a curious move, and my thinking is Mallett will win the job in training camp. After all, the Texans demoted previous starter Ryan Fitzpatrick, who incidentally was 17th in DYAR and 13th in DVOA, in favor of Mallett midseason, only to see Mallett tear his pectoral muscle and be lost for the year. They clearly thought at that point that Mallett was going to be the long-term solution for them at the position, but instead of keeping Fitzpatrick around to back him up, they traded him to the Jets for a conditional draft pick and brought in Hoyer, who was not very good last year. They also drafted Tom Savage in the 4th round of last year’s draft; unfortunately he is looking at this point like just a big whiff. To be fair to Hoyer, he could see the standard “I’m no longer in Cleveland” bump in play, and his receiving core last year was not off the top draw. It’s fair to say that their best bet at finding a quarterback they can feel good moving forward with is Mallett, since he is young and has solid physical skills. This position is likely to be in flux for 2015 and will likely keep them from being a contender should they make the playoffs. Or they could play JJ Watt at quarterback and anoint him the greatest living American.

I’d think there is an excellent chance the Texans trade out of this pick and look to acquire more picks later in the draft. First, the only glaring need they have is at quarterback, and that problem isn’t getting solved at #16. Second, the Chargers are one pick after at #17 and if they don’t trade the pick for Mariota, they could be looking at either Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon. It is likely one of the other teams that is craving a running back—the Arizona Cardinals for example—will be on the phone with the Texans to see if they can jump over the Chargers and nab one of the top two running backs. When the Texans do make a selection, they need help at receiver to play opposite of Deandre Hopkins; Nelson Agholor (USC), Devante Parker (Louisville) and Dorial Green-Beckham (various) are all possibilities for them at #16 or wherever they end up picking.

Indianapolis Colts

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: 29th and 61st

Projected starting QB: Andrew Luck, Age 25 (10th in DYAR, 11th in DVOA, 4,573 yds, 4,681 EY, 40 TD’s, 16 Ints)

If you have read some of my earlier columns, you know I’m not a big rankings guy. But, if you were to ask the average fan whether Luck is a top five quarterback, I think a high percentage would say yes. After all, he led the Colts to the AFC championship game last year, won a big playoff game at home the year before and has lots of pedigree as the former #1 overall pick in 2012. Advanced stats, however, tell a little different story. His latest season, where he was only barely top 10 in DYAR, was by advanced stats, his best. In 2013, he was essentially a top 15 quarterback, 14th in DYAR, 16th in DVOA, while being barely top 20 his rookie season 19th in both categories that year. To be clear, this is not some referendum on Luck; he’s gotten better every year, those stats do not account for his rushing ability—he’s ranked as the third best running quarterback by Football Outsiders—and he hasn’t had the best of it from a skill position standpoint either. It is completely fair project that Luck will take another leap this year and put himself among the elite. The point is Luck still has some growing to do; he is not a finished product and, at least statistically, he has not ascended to the top of the quarterback table just yet.

The Colts had a meddling offensive line in 2014, ranked 16th in the league by DVOA overall and in sack rate. Help at either tackle or center would be ideal for the Colts; protecting Luck should be a priority for them, and some semblance of a running game would be fantastic as well. They added veteran running back Frank Gore via free agency; his forte is running between the tackles, which is a sign the Colts want to emphasize that part of the offense in 2015. If Florida State center Cam Erving is available, I think this has to be the choice. Still learning to play offensive line after starting his career on the defensive line, he has good feet and is solid in pass protection. The Colts will likely have a few options at tackle if Erving is off the board– TJ Clemmings (Pitt), Ereck Flowers (Miami), Jake Fisher (Oregon)—it’s something of a take your pick situation. A need for the Colts defensively is at the safety position, if Landon Collins of Alabama or Damarious Randall of Arizona State is available, they will have to give them serious consideration because the safety class after these guys drops off considerably.
Jacksonville Jaguars

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: #3rd and 36th

Projected starting QB: Blake Bortles age 22 (44th in DYAR, 43rd in DVOA, 2,554 yards, 1,310 EY, 11 TD’s, 16 ints)

Let’s start this with a little bit of perspective on Blake Bortles: going into the 2014 draft it was generally the opinion of NFL scouts and evaluators that while Bortles had the best physical tools of the top quarterbacks available for hire, he needed a year to develop; he was too raw, not yet ready for the pro game. Sitting Bortles a year was the plan when the season began, but unfortunately, of all quarterbacks who threw less than 100 passes last year, Chad Henne was the worst. Had he just been even below average, a Geno Smith, for example, Bortles isn’t thrown into the fire. Alas Henne was awful, Bortles was inserted after three games, and the result was the worst quarterback in the NFL. Hopefully the coaching staff can be somewhat patient with Bortles, although it is tough in todays NFL because their jobs are on the line too; they can’t wait forever. There is some good news: Bortles was able to show some of the athleticism that scouts loved in the pre-draft process. His DYAR and DVOA numbers for quarterbacks rushing came in ahead of Colin Kaepernick and Andrew Luck, two guys known for their ability to scramble. So, you know, it wasn’t all bad. The Jags have a young core of receivers and some high draft picks this year, hopefully they surround Bortles with more talent and give him the best chance to succeed.

Speaking of picks, it seems the Jags will have some interesting choices at #3. Let’s assume Jameis Winston goes #1 to the Bucs and Marcus Mariota goes #2 to either the Titans or a team that trades up for him. That means defensive tackle Leonard Williams, who many feel is the best overall player in the draft, is still out there for the taking. The Jags’ phone is sure to be ringing off the hook for teams willing to make a trade to get to that spot. Similarly if the Titans were to take Williams at #2, Mariota is on the board and again, teams will be calling to deal for the quarterback from Oregon. If Mariota falls to them at #3, the answer is simple, trade down to acquire more picks. They already have their QB, no point in taking another one. If Williams is there, the Jags could simply take him, seems smart to select the best overall player at #3. But, the Jags need help in a lot of places and the defensive line is the one area where they were actually ok last year. If some team wants to give them a haul for Williams, it would be in their best interest to do it. It’s more important that they stockpile talent at many positions than try to rebuild one guy at a time. If they can get another teams first rounder, plus a second or a third, that’s the way to go.

Tennessee Titans

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: 2nd and 33rd
Projected starting QB: Zach Mettenberger, age 23 (40th in DYAR, 40th in DVOA, 1,277 yds, 669 EY, 8 TDs, 7 Ints)
When analyzing the Titans quarterback situation, I essentially look at their draft outlook as well, so this will all be very draft heavy. The Titans took Mettenberger in the sixth round of last year’s draft, and while he fits the profile of coach Ken Whisenhunt’s prototypical player—big, strong armed, stand in the pocket—it is unlikely he will become any teams long term answer at the QB position. In his time as the starting quarterback last year, he failed to impress on the field, and most of the discussion about him came off the field in the way of his facial hair decisions. There has been wild speculation about what the Titans will do with the second pick: they have been rumored to be in on a trade with the San Diego Chargers for their quarterback, Philip Rivers, in exchange for the #2 pick, which would be quarterback Marcus Mariota. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt coached Rivers in San Diego during the 2013 season as the offensive coordinator (that year Rivers was 2nd and 3rd in DYAR and DVOA); there is a connection between those two. The Titans could also field offers from the Jets at #6 and the Browns at #12 to move up and grab the Oregon quarterback as well. It is difficult to say which deal most intrigues the Titans, although in dealing with the Jets and Browns they would not end up with a quarterback to replace Mettenberger, which you would think would be a must. The final option, of course, would be to just draft Mariota for themselves and build on their other needs with the 33rd pick.

So what are those other needs? The Titans need help at the right tackle spot and at receiver. They have the first pick in the second round if this years’ draft, you figure they want a player in this spot that will start for them. A fringe first round player at tackle is Cedric Ogbuehi out of Texas A&M; he could begin his career at right tackle opposite of last years first round pick at left tackle, Taylor Lewan. Ohio State wide receiver Devin Smith also has a good chance at being around for the 33rd pick and he would give the Titans that deep speed threat they currently do not possess. Justin Hunter is of the bigger, rangy receiver mode and Kendall Wright is the slot, intermediate route runner. Smith averaged over 21 yards a reception last year at Ohio State and he would open up the field for his compliments at the position.