The NFC champions came out of the West division for the 2nd year in a row, the Seattle Seahawks, and they are coming off a heartbreaking loss in the Super Bowl after winning it the previous season. Many considered the NFC West one of, if not the most, difficult divisions going into the 2014 season, but with the San Francisco 49ers taking a bit of a dip late in the year, it wasn’t as daunting as many anticipated. The Arizona Cardinals were a playoff team in 2014, but injuries at QB derailed their chances; the same could be said of the St. Louis Rams. Both teams saw their QB’s go down with season ending injuries. From a roster construction perspective, these are some of the better rosters in the NFL; any one of these teams, with good QB play, could have big seasons in 2015.

Some information on the stats being used, specifically DYAR, DVOA and EY. DYAR refers to Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, or the value of a quarterback’s performance compared to a replacement level player and adjusted for situation and the defense. DVOA is Defense-adjusted Value Over Average or the value, per play, over an average QB in the same game situations. And finally EY is Effective Yards, or when compared to their actual yards, if the QB’s EY is higher than their actual yards, then said QB played better than standard stats would normally indicate. The inverse is true if the players EY is lower than their actual yards.
NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: 24th and 55th

Projected starting QB: Carson Palmer, age 35 (18th in DYAR, 12th DVOA, 1,562 yds, 1,556 EY, 11 TD’s, 3 Ints)

Palmer led the Cardinals to an 8-1 record to start the 2014 season before tearing his ACL in a game against the St. Louis Rams, ending his season. He had modest numbers in his shortened season, top 12 by DVOA and few interceptions. The Arizona team was getting by on the strength of their defense; it was not expected of Palmer to be the driving force behind the team’s success, he was counted on to be a steady player and keep the team out of major mistakes, which he was successful at for the most part. However, as Palmer gets up in age, the team might have to start thinking about their future at the quarterback position. There is a real chance that Palmer can only give them one more effective season before they need to find a replacement. It is yet to be determined if that QB is currently on the roster. Drew Stanton had the most success backing up Palmer, coming in at 21st in DYAR and 17th in DVOA, ahead of Nick Foles, Jay Cutler and Matt Stafford. He was a solid back up, not sure if he is the type of QB a team would look to build around. Their QB situation can be best described as adequate going into the 2015 season, but they will have some decisions to make going into 2016.

The Cardinals boast one of the best defenses in the NFL; ranked 7th by DVOA, 14th against the pass, 6th against the run. They added defensive players Lamar Woodley and Corey Redding via free agency, but they may be looking to add another rush outside linebacker to their 3-4 scheme. They have been linked to outside linebacker Bud Dupree out of Kentucky; Dupree had 15.5 sacks the last two seasons playing in the tough SEC conference. He would fit the bill as the pass rusher the Cardinals covet. Another player they’ve been linked to is cornerback Jalen Collins out of LSU. The idea of pairing him with star Patrick Peterson, also out of LSU, might be too enticing to pass up. Collins is a long, tall corner a la Antonio Cromartie whom the Cardinals lost in free agency to the New York Jets. Look for the Cardinals to upgrade along the offensive line with their 2nd round pick to improve their run game that was 30th in the NFL by DVOA last year.

San Francisco 49ers

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: #15 and #46

Projected starting qb: Colin Kaepernick, age (28th in DYAR, 19th in DVOA, 3,033 yards, 2,816 EY, 19 TD’s, 10 ints)

2014 was a very poor season for Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers, by far the quarterback’s worst since becoming the starter in 2012, when he led the team to the NFC championship game. 2014 was a tumultuous year for the team; their head coach, Jim Harbaugh, was rumored from the outset to be at odds with the front office and there was word of a rift all season. Kaepernicks struggles coincided with the deterioration of the 49ers offensive line. In 2012, the 49ers had the top ranked run and pass blocking offensive line; they allowed only 29 sacks that season, or 3.7% of dropbacks. Fast-forward to 2014 and they were 30th in protecting Kaepernick, allowing 52 sacks on nearly 10% of his dropbacks. He was also dealing with injuries to two of his favorite targets, tight end Vernon Davis and wide receiver Michael Crabtree. As it turns out, it appears Kaepernick will be without Crabtree for much longer, as he appears to be leaving the team in free agency, but has yet to find another team. This will be a very important season for Kaepernick; it will be his first with new head coach Jim Tomsula, and he will be out to prove last season was an aberration, not the downfall of his career. Given the new coaching environment, there is very much that is unpredictable about the upcoming season for the quarterback and their team as a whole. If Kaepernick falters, it is very likely that this new coaching staff will elect to start over with a quarterback of their choosing.

The 49ers helped Kaepernick via free agency by signing wide receiver Torrey Smith from the Baltimore Ravens. He is one of the more underrated signings of the free agency period, as he is not seen as a top 10-15 receiver, but advanced statistics tell a different story. In 2014, Smith was the #9 receiver in DYAR and 7th in DVOA. He caught 49 passes for 767 yards and had an EY 1,099; he was far better last season than his numbers would lead you to believe. Of his 49 receptions, 11 went for touchdowns, and he drew a league leading 11 pass interference penalties for 229 yards. He is the deep threat that the 49ers have not had during Kaepernick’s tenure at QB. Which brings us to their 2014 draft strategy. Given their struggles on the offensive line, it would not be surprising to see the Niners draft a lineman in the first round; they lost guard Mike Iupati to the Arizona Cardinals. La’el Collins (LSU), Cameron Irving (FSU) and Brandon Scherrf (Iowa) all could factor in for the Niners at #15. Look for them to target the defensive line and linebacker in the 2nd and 3rd rounds; they lost Ray McDonald to free agency and Patrick Willis and Chris Borland to retirement.

Seattle Seahawks

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: None and 63rd

Projected starting QB: Russell Wilson, Age 26 (13th in DYAR, 14th in DVOA, 3,241 yds, 3,128 EY, 20 TD’s, 7 Ints)

There is not much to break down with the Seahawks quarterback situation; Russell Wilson will be their quarterback for a long time. He led the team to back to back Super Bowl appearances, winning in 2013, and coming up 2 yards short last season. Unfortunately, it was his interception at the goal line that cost them another championship; nevertheless a quarterback with his track record of winning is someone you hold onto. He saw a dip in his advanced stats this season; he was 9th and 8th in DYAR and DVOA last season, which may have had more to do with a lack of quality receiving options than lack of play on Wilson’s part–he lost his 2013 leading receiver Golden Tate to free agency in 2014. His real value comes as a runner; 849 yards on 118 attempts, 7.2 a carry and 6 td’s; he was first among quarterbacks in all categories. I’ve been dubious about his ability to lead a team as a thrower, but given the way Seattle runs their offense, and the effectiveness he has shown in running that offense, it would be folly to believe he won’t continue to operate at a high level.

The Seahawks have one of the most well balanced rosters in football; they had the #5 offense by DVOA last year, and the #1 defense. They didn’t suffer any losses to the core of their team, but there were some departures that they will have to account for, plus one glaring addition. They added star tight end Jimmy Graham via trade for center Max Unger. This will undoubtedly help Wilson throwing the ball; the Seahawks like to hit the tight end up the seam and there aren’t many greater threats up the middle at the tight end position than Graham. However, the loss of Unger will be felt by this offense. The Seahawks were the #2 power running team in the NFL last season and #6 in stuffed ranked, which means their running backs were hit or tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage on only 17% of their run plays. For as good Jimmy Graham is as a receiver, he is not a great blocker by any means. Coupled with the loss of Unger, the Seahawks will have to account for this loss via the draft. To add another wrinkle, the Seahawks gave their first round pick in 2015 to the Saints in the trade for Graham; they will have to wait for the 63rd pick to address this need. A.J. Cann (South Carolina) and Tre’ Jackson (FSU) are two names at offensive line who played in the interior for successful teams who are graded as second round talents. The Seahawks also lost starting corner Byron Maxwell to free agency, who they will look to replace via the draft as well.

St. Louis Rams

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: 10th and 41st

Projected starting QB: Nick Foles, age 26 (19th in DYAR, 20th in DVOA, 2,108 yds, 2,009 EY, 13 TDs, 10 Ints)

2014 was a very “regression to the mean” type season for Foles after his incredible 2013 campaign when he threw 27 TD’s versus just 2 interceptions. That year he was 5th in DYAR and 2nd in DVOA; he was also a part of the Philadelphia Eagles organization with offensive mastermind Chip Kelly as his head coach. He now is charged with leading the Rams offense, which since 2010 has finished 30th, 32nd, 21st, 22nd and 25th in offensive DVOA. Those numbers are abysmal, especially for a team that plays all of its home games in a dome. Despite his success in 2013, Foles looked poor at times during 2014, even while running Kelly’s QB friendly up-tempo offense. It is likely that Chip Kelly was willing to part with Foles for his counterpart in St. Louis, Sam Bradford, because of Foles’ problems with accuracy last season. Among the top 20 quarterbacks in DVOA last season, Foles had the worst completion percentage, at 60.4%. How Foles will adjust to being in an offense not tailored for QB success, with an offensive coaching staff with little track record of offensive success, remains to be seen. Being that he is still on his rookie contract and will soon be due an extension, he may have just this one season to prove himself worthy of long term money. The situation in St. Louis is more stable than it was with Bradford simply because Foles doesn’t have that injury history, but their QB situation definitely remains in flux.

I think it would be fun for the Rams to draft a pass rusher at #10 simply for the sake of having all the pass rushers in the NFL. They’d be the first team to run a 6-1 defensive front 7, given all of their talent on the defensive line. In all seriousness, if the Rams are to make a pick for the defense, it will be at corner. They need someone to play opposite of the streaky Janoris Jenkins, and to supplement EJ Gaines. If the top corner in the draft, Trae Waynes out of Michigan State, is available, he will be tough to pass up. However, it would be the wiser move for the Rams to look at—surprise—the offensive line. Jake Long was cut by the Rams due to his injury issues, as was center Scott Wells. They drafted Greg Robinson with the #2 pick last year and he had a slow start to his career, but indications are he is ready to be a dominant player like he was at Auburn. A player like La’el Collins, someone who can play tackle or guard, would work very well for the Rams and provide more talent to an offensive line that needs it badly. In the second round they can target their corner or delve into a very deep wide receiver class and give Foles more weapons to work with. Nelson Agholor, who has been getting some first round buzz lately, would look pretty tasty at #41 should he be there.