The NFC North steps to the forefront in our pre-draft analysis this week. The North saw two teams make the playoffs (Packers and Lions), one team severely under achieve (Bears) and another break in a rookie QB (Vikings).  As with the breakdown of the NFC south, I will look at each team in the division through the lens of their quarterback situation, as it is the most important position in the NFL. Teams either have a quarterback they can contend with or they do not, however, there are long term implications that need to be factored in; like age, contract, coaching turnover etc. I’ll also break down the most pressing draft needs for each of the four teams, where they draft in the first two rounds, and who might be available at those positions.

Some information on the stats being used to evaluate the quarterbacks, specifically the DYAR, DVOA and EY. DYAR refers to Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, or the value of a quarterback’s performance compared to a replacement level player and adjusted for situation and the defense. DVOA is Defense-adjusted Value Over Average or the value, per play, over an average QB in the same game situations. And finally EY is Effective Yards, or when compared to their actual yards, if the QB’s EY is higher than their actual yards, then said QB played better than standard stats would normally indicate. The inverse is true if the players EY is lower than their actual yards.

NFC North

Chicago Bears

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: 7th and 39th

Projected starting QB: Jay Cutler, age 31 (16th in DYAR, 22nd DVOA, 3,554 yds, 3,622 EY, 29 TD’s, 15 Ints)

It was a season of disappointment for Cutler and the Bears. They were projected by some to have one of the best offenses in the NFL; even NFL analyst Dave Dameshek predicted during the preseason that Jay Cutler would be the league MVP.  This was not outside the realm of possibility in the preseason; they had a pair of star receivers, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey, a star running back in Matt Forte and a talented tight end, Martellus Bennett. Added to Cutler it seemed the Bears would be unstoppable. As the saying goes, this is why they play the games, and as the season went along, it was proven that the Bears were, in fact, very stoppable. Cutler was by measurable standards, mediocre, if not below average. He was right at league average in DYAR in terms of his ranking, and below league average in DVOA in both rank and by the numbers; his DVOA was -0.7%. There was talk during this free agency period that the Bears were looking to deal Cutler in a trade, something that never did come to fruition. It is more likely the Bears couldn’t find anyone willing to take on the 15.5 million dollar salary of a 31 year old QB who couldn’t make the most out of Marshall, Jeffrey, Bennett and Forte, than the Bears deciding he was the guy to take them to the next level. Their new head coach John Fox is most likely going to give Cutler one year, perhaps not even a full season, to make his case, or Fox and the team will move on.

The Bears hold the 7th pick in the draft and may be in a position to draft Marcus Mariota at that spot. They also have a major need for help with their pass rush and in the secondary. They were 25th in defensive DVOA last year, 29th against the pass. Luckily for them, there should be a very quality pass rusher available to them at #7; players like Vic Beasely (Clemson), Shane Rey (Missouri) and Randy Gregory (Nebraska) will still be around when they are making their pick and it would address a need. The fact that they held onto Cutler leads me to believe they wouldn’t target Mariota early in the draft, it would make more sense to shore up the defense with the first two picks, perhaps choose a safety or corner with the 7th pick in the second round and build the team that way. It should be noted John Fox is a defensive minded coach who is more likely to get his defense set and pick up his QB of the future later on down the line. It would not surprise me if they took a chance on a QB in the later rounds, although they did re-sign college superstar (slight exaggeration) Jimmy Clausen to be their backup.

Detroit Lions

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: #23 and #54

Projected starting QB: Matthew Stafford, age 27 (15th in DYAR, 21st in DVOA, 3,998 Yards, 3,815 EY, 22 TD’s, 12 Ints)

The Lions have a very interesting situation at quarterback. When looking at the teams in this division, you get to the Lions and think “Oh, they have Stafford, they are set.” Then, you look at his numbers and you think “wait, he’s just a slightly better version of Jay Cutler.” Stafford is just one spot better than Cutler in DYAR and DVOA, and his effective yards are less than his actual yards, which indicates he was not as good as his numbers indicated last season; and those numbers weren’t exactly lighting the league on fire. We should keep in mind that he was without Calvin Johnson for a good portion of last season; fantasy owners will remind us he missed two complete games and was very limited in two others. But, he still had Golden Tate at his disposal; who had over 1,300 yards receiving, and a stable of running backs in Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, and Theo Riddick, plus a talented young tight end in Eric Ebron. Calvin Johnson was also good enough to bring in over 1,000 yards receiving and 8 TD’s when he did take the field, so it’s not as though Johnson was not an effective player. Stafford had better than average weapons to work with, but could only manage the 19th rated offense by DVOA and the 16th rated passing offense. Being that the Lions drafted him with the first overall pick in 2009, they are not moving on from him, and they shouldn’t. But, this is a QB situation to keep an eye on next season to see if Stafford can use his considerable offensive arsenal and become an elite performer, or if he will flounder as Jay Cutler 2.0.

The Lions could help out Stafford with a better running game; they were 29th in DVOA running the football last year. The only ran for 88.9 yards a game last season, good for 28th in the league. Their top three running backs only had 319 carries, which is the lowest for running back attempts in their division. Their top rusher, Joique Bell, was the 42nd ranked running back by DVOA last season, one spot worse than the infamous Trent Richardson. At the 23rd pick in the first round, they are in position to take a player who could bolster their running back group like Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin). Should the Lions elect to select a corner in the first round, possibly Marcus Peters (Washington), Kevin Johnson (Wake Forest) or Byron Jones (UConn) then there should be some intriguing options at running back with their 2nd round pick. Nebraska’s Ameer Abdullah, Boise State’s Jay Ajayi, and Indiana’s Tevin Coleman should all be available at that spot. All of those players are comfortable running out of one back sets, which the Lions like to employ next season.

Green Bay Packers

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: 30th and 62nd

Projected starting QB: Aaron Rodgers, Age 31 (2nd in DYAR, 1st in DVOA, 4,168 yds, 5,035 EY, 38 TD’s, 5 Ints)

I’ve got the Packers in the “have” category at quarterback for next season and seasons into the future. I know, I’m taking a chance with that one, but I believe in this Aaron Rodgers guy, I think he’s got a bright future. Jokes aside, there’s really not much to say here; Rodgers is super elite and his stats bear that out. 1st in DVOA, 2nd in DYAR, amazingly, he’s almost 1,000 yards better than his stats would indicate, and those stats are among the best in the league, which is actually a little scary. He’s 31, he isn’t showing any signs of slowing down and his offensive skill mates are set for the next few years; the Packers are in good shape at this position for at least the next 3-4 seasons, and when I say “in good shape” I mean they should be among the best offenses in the league year in and year out. Good on you Packer fans.

In free agency the Packers did what they always do, re-sign their own top free agents. They locked up receiver Randall Cobb and right tackle Bryan Bulaga, thereby giving Rodgers a weapon to throw to and a lineman to help protect him. Anything the Packers do in the draft should be to bolster the defense that was 16th in DVOA last year. They lost linebackers AJ Hawk and Brad Jones to free agency, two guys who weren’t exactly world beaters at their positions; it would make sense for them to target that position in the first round of the draft. Denzel Perryman out of Miami makes sense for them at #30 or Eric Kendricks out of UCLA. Pretty much anything front seven defensively will be good, they’ve got their secondary in good stead with Sam Shields and Casey Hayward at corner and Haha Clinton-Dix, Morgan Burnett and Micah Hyde at safety/nickel.

Minnesota Vikings

2015 1st and 2nd round picks: 11 and 45

Projected starting QB: Teddy Bridgewater, age 22 (38th in DYAR, 37th in DVOA, 2,656 yds, 1,997 EY, 14 TDs, 11 Ints)

It was an up and down season for the rookie out of Louisville, but he definitely showed some promise, certainly enough for the Vikings to have good feelings about the QB position moving forward. In fairness to him, he expected to be entering into a situation where Adrian Peterson was his running back, Ryan Khalil was an All-Pro left tackle, and Cordarelle Patterson was an emerging star at wide receiver. Peterson ended up being suspended the last 15 games for child abuse, Khalil somehow forgot how to play football, and offensive coordinator Norv Turner forgot Patterson was on the team. So Bridgewater was stuck with the duo of Matt Asiata and Jerrick Mckinnon at running back, Greg Jennings, Jairus Wright and Charles Johnson at receiver. I don’t know about you, but I had no idea who Charles Johnson was when he started making plays for the Vikings late in the year (incidentally, he was a 7th round pick of the Green Bay Packers in 2013 out of Grand Valley State. Pleased to meet you, Charles). Bridgewater made the most of his situation, however, gained some valuable game experience and, despite his poor pre-draft pro day, showed that he was in fact the quarterback everyone thought he was throughout his career at Louisville. Funny how that works out.

Unfortunately for the Vikings, who spent a very high draft pick (3rd overall) on Khalil two years ago, they are stuck to let him try and figure out his game again. But, they can still upgrade the offensive line with the 11th pick in the draft, hopefully a player like Brandon Scherff out of Iowa will still be on the board, or a talent like La’el Collins out of LSU. It might be tempting to take a skill position player at this spot to help Bridgewater, but while it is not very fun or sexy, a quarterback needs protection and a running game more than any wide receiver. They are likely to lose Adrian Peterson before next season, his agent has come out and said Peterson would like to move on from the team. The team has stated they plan on him being there, as he is under contract, but these situations usually lead to the player getting his way. The Vikings may be tempted to pick up a running back in the 1st or 2nd to replace Peterson; that would be a mistake. First, Jerrick Mckinnon was 16th in DYAR and 7th in DVOA last year, despite being a rookie and only coming on in the second half of the season. Matt Asiata, who was burdened with being Peterson’s replacement, was 20th in DYAR and 17th in DVOA. Additionally Asiata rushed for 570 yards, but his effective yards numbers came in at 730; he performed better than his numbers show. The Vikings would be better served targeting help on the line and filling a need at cornerback to pair with emerging Xavier Rhodes and help a pass defense that was 19th against the pass by DVOA last year.