Now that Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota—the two consensus best QB’s in the upcoming NFL Draft—have finished their pro days, it seems fitting to kick off the Tilting Ground draft coverage by focusing on footballs most important position: the quarterback. I’ll take a look at each team,division by division, and focus on the signal callers to make a determination whether that team is set at the quarterback position and will build their team around said player, or whether they are major players for either of the top quarterbacks, Winston and Mariota, or one of the less hyped QB’s; like Brett Hundley, Bryce Petty, or Garrett Grayson. It should be noted that Winston is the favorite to be the number one pick in the draft, selected by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and he therefore won’t be an option for most of the league. We’ll also focus on the overall draft needs for each team with the big picture at quarterback in mind.

Some information on the stats being used, specifically DYAR, DVOA and EY. DYAR refers to Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, or the value of a quarterback’s performance compared to a replacement level player and adjusted for situation and the defense. DVOA is Defense-adjusted Value Over Average or the value, per play, over an average QB in the same game situations. And finally EY is Effective Yards, or when compared to their actual yards, if the QB’s EY is higher than their actual yards, then said QB played better than standard stats would normally indicate. The inverse is true if the players EY is lower than their actual yards.
NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons

Projected starting QB: Matt Ryan, Age 30 (7th in DYAR, 9th DVOA, 4,491 Yards, 4,907 EY, 28 TD’s)

Matt Ryan was top 10 in all passing categories last year, on a team that was beset with injuries along the offensive line and had one of the worst running games in the NFL. Atlanta ranked 9th in passing offense and 22nd in running offense by football outsiders. Ryan has been among the NFL leaders in passing yards and touchdowns since he came into the league and has led his team to the playoffs in multiple seasons. The main criticism of Ryan has always been his inability to get the Falcons over the hump in the playoffs. These past few seasons he has seen his team go through numerous transitions, most notably his coach getting fired after last season. The jury is out on him being elite at the QB position, but he is a player the Falcons can build around.

The Falcons missed out on getting a pass rusher in last year’s draft, and they cannot miss again at that position. Many of their offensive line woes last year were due to injury, but that position seems to be solid going into next year. They never replaced the hole left when tight end Tony Gonzalez retired a year ago, so a logical move for them is to draft a tight end, however this is not a great year at that position. The best hope is letting Devin Funchess know he is not fast enough to be a receiver and slide him into that tight end slot.

Carolina Panthers

Projected starting QB: Cam Newton, age 26 (36th in DYAR, 33rd in DVOA, 2,841 Yards, 2,365 EY, 18 TD’s)

It was a bad year for Newton throwing the football, ranking below league average in all the advanced stats and behind quarterbacks such as Colt McCoy, Geno Smith and Ryan Lindley. Those stats do not take into account his 544 rushing yards and 5 TD’s on the ground, nor his subpar receiving core. He was expected to carry the entirety of the offense which appears to have been too much of a load for him while he is still developing at the pro level. Speaking of his development, Newton started his career 15th in DYAR and 16th in DVOA and his next season he was 13th and 14th in those two categories. In 2013 those rankings dipped to 17th and 20th while the Panthers rode their defense to a 12-4 record. This last season was by far his worst and coincided with the loss of veteran receiver Steve Smith and featured starting receivers Jason Avant, Philly Brown and rookie Kelvin Benjamin.

This is an important season for Newton and the Panthers; they will presumably add more weapons and more line help which will hopefully add a better running game to help take some of the burden off of Newton. The Panthers had the 16th rushing offense by DVOA, helped in large part because of Newtons running ability. Newton will be 26 by the time the 2015 season starts and while he is considered one of the upper half QB’s in the league, it’s time for his production to start to reflect that. The Panthers hold the 25th pick in the draft and will be focused on the offensive and defensive lines while looking to target a receiver in the later rounds in another deep draft at that position.

New Orleans Saints

Projected starting QB: Drew Brees, Age 36 (4th in DYAR, 7th in DVOA, 4,750 yds, 5,342 EY, 33 TD’s)

Statistically, it was another very good season for Brees, unfortunately it was not for the Saints. They failed to make the playoffs for the 3rd time since 2006, and in the off season unloaded their star tight end, Jimmy Graham to the Seattle Seahawks. There has been speculation the Saints should trade Brees to the Jets for the 6th pick in this year’s draft and start on fully rebuilding. Supporting this speculation is evidence to suggest Brees is on a decline. While he posted good stats this season, it was a drop from his previous seasons. His DYAR the preceding three seasons was 1st, 3rd, and 3rd. His DVOA came in at 2nd, 5th and 5th. Both of those positions dropped this last season and have been dropping from their elite levels from 2008 to 2011. The Saints have to wonder whether the days of Brees being an elite performer have passed him by, especially when there may be the opportunity to draft a QB at the 6th spot, most likely Mariota. It would make sense that Brees would see a drop in his ability; he will be 36 this year, he’s thrown 2,661 passes in just the last four seasons, and aging QB’s tend to lose zip on their passes. For a player who was never known to have a strong arm, Brees is likely to see a significant drop in production in the coming seasons. The Saints would be smart to look at the Patriots strategy of unloading a veteran a year too soon, rather than a year too late.

The Saints are weak at corner and rushing the passer, those problems need to be addressed through the draft, luckily they have six picks in the first three rounds, including two in the first round. They have an opportunity to retool their roster without dealing Brees and taking one last shot with him and head coach Sean Payton. To be sure, dealing Brees would be largely unpopular in the city of New Orleans as Brees is probably the most well liked player in the city having brought them a Super Bowl in 2009.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected starting QB: Mike Glennon, age 25 (27th in DYAR, 24th in DVOA, 1,318 yds, 1,209 EY, 10 TDs)

This is the first clear example of a “have not” in our profiles. Glennon only started five games last year, after starting 13 the previous season in his rookie year. He was drafted in the 3rd round by the previous coaching regime and is unlikely to be retained as the starter by the current head coach, Lovie Smith. The Bucs own the #1 pick in this year’s draft and are heavy favorites to select Florida State QB Jameis Winston. Should it be Winston taking the snaps for the Bucs next year he’ll have good weapons at his disposal with Vincent Jackson and 2nd year receiver Mike Evans. The Bucs had the worst offense in the NFL last year, 31st in rushing, 31st in passing. They didn’t do anything well, except when they threw the ball to Evans and Jackson. When a team doesn’t do anything well, they should build up the middle. Get your QB if he is available, draft linemen on both sides, get after the other team’s quarterback.