“Everyone has a plan ‘till they get punched in the mouth.”

-Mike Tyson

For me, this quote embodies a few key aspects of the of the NCAA basketball tournament.  The games are played by college kids so there are often periods where the best plans by the best coaches will mean little and instead, instinct, talent and athleticism will take over.  But the Tyson quote mostly reminds me of how I feel halfway through the day on Thursday.  After spending three days obsessing over brackets and point spreads, I will assemble some kind of plan for betting the games in Vegas, then I will show up, put down 10 beers before noon and stumble to the betting window to wager way too much on a school that I never heard of because someone next to me in line said they have a player than can drain threes.  This year will be no different; I just hope the advice from the drunken stranger at the bar pays off.

Kentucky is an overwhelming favorite to win it all this year at odds of about even money.  The odds makers have essentially said that Kentucky has as good a chance to win it all as every other team combined.  Generally, when faced with a huge favorite in a large field it is always a better bet to take the field, because to win, you don’t have to know who will pull the upset, you just need someone to do it and upsets are common.  But this year, if I had to bet the farm one way or the other, I’d throw it all on Kentucky.  Maybe I’m the emotional, irrational type of bettor with a bias towards the recent past that Vegas usually fleeces, but I think Kentucky will roll and the dumb money will rake it in.

This year the tournament looks a bit more top- heavy than in years past.  The top 2 seeds in most regions seem strong to me, especially compared to the 3-5 seeds.  As usual, the selection committee has gone out of its way to pair up teams I like and teams I dislike in the same region.  Wisconsin and Arizona look likely to play each other in the Elite Eight, I would have liked both of them to make the Final Four but that is not possible now.  On the other side of the bracket Duke and Gonzaga are the 1 and 2 seed in the same region with Iowa State as the 3 and Georgetown as the 4.  I would love to fade all of those teams but then who the hell do I pick from that region to make the Final Four.  I’m stuck filling out my bracket staring at a possible Duke/Gonzaga matchup, feeling uncomfortable picking either team, but not wanting to take anyone else.  I would also be much more inclined to pick Buffalo for the first round upset if they played a team like Maryland instead of West Virginia.  The committee would make my life much easier if they just matched up teams I like with teams I hate but they stubbornly refuse to adopt such a policy.

One of my favorite bets over the last few years has been taking the last-in at-large teams that win their play-in game to win another game or two.  It seems to me that every year at least one of them makes the sweet sixteen.  Last year Tennessee and the year before that LaSalle both made it to the sweet sixteen after winning their play-in game.  BYU looks like the best team to me this year in the play-in games but whoever wins, I will be betting to pull off an upset or two in the first rounds.

Another way I like to bet the games is by taking the under in games with low over/under totals.  There seems to be more defensively oriented teams that slow the game down and make scoring more difficult, but the general betting public likes scoring and prefers to bet overs. When most people see a low number, they are inclined to take the over. If the average bettor zigs, you want to zag.  Vegas isn’t stupid, the average bettor is.  Betting a game in hopes of low scoring is boring and lame but often a winner, and cashing a boring bet is much more fun than tearing up an exciting looser.

With all the good times that come with March Madness I would much rather be a fool, content with my bread and circuses, than someone with a social conscience.  But I feel a need to at least mention one related issue that is probably more important.  While the NCAA, coaches and universities make big money from these sporting events and the television and endorsement deals that go along with it, the athletes are prohibited from profiting in the same manner.  I’m not saying that schools should pay million dollar salaries to student athletes, but they should at least allow these young adults to profit off of their name or image if it is possible.  When I went to college, it was on a scholarship, but as long as I fulfilled my scholastic duties, I was free to take whatever outside job I wanted.  It should be the same for college athletes.  If they are fortunate enough to be able to get paid to endorse a product or sign some autographs, the NCAA should not get in their way.  Such a policy might also help the image of college sports as it is currently a bit unsavory to see the wealth and privilege of some school employees, coaches and sports administrators when much of it comes from selling a product made heavily of underprivileged youngsters playing amateur sports.

But enough of all that, I’m just stoked for Thursday so I can sit in a sports book with a beer in my hand when the first game tips off and yell, “You suck ref!” at the first block/charge call that goes against whatever team I bet on.